Music Flow and TSL

Programmers seem to always be searching for more TSL from the audience.   Over the years we've developed the music sweeps, billboards, appointment listening, contesting, at work listening tactics, and placing the spot breaks in a variety of slots in the hour.

One area that stands out and is often not explored in the TSL dialog is the Music Flow.  Where are the best slots in the clocks to play the biggest hits, where is the most opportune time to intro new songs, what's the best place to 'stretch out' the playlist a little.   How should the flow move between the variance in tempo, music type/style, and era?  How do we balance the long term rotations over days and weeks against the mix in this quarter hour?

It's a very careful balancing act to keep all the 'music balls'  in the air and balanced.  Working with PDs and Music Directors on their music scheduling set up you see all kinds of approaches.   The real issues here is one of math.  In the end we are nearly always looking to have the most popular - biggest hits in whatever format we are working in on the air most of the time.  After all that's how you 'play the best music.'  We also need room to introduce new music, express an edge to the mix so we keep the super P1 fans engaged and we also need to make sure to cover the range of styles and tempos.

Then on top of all that we have to respect the long range rotation patterns.  We have to make sure that the songs are getting rotations that are in line with their importance.  Another concern is not playing songs in the same hours day after day.  Of course we also have to respect artists reputation - no one wants to just be playing the same artist we just played a half hour ago.

The more rules and restrictions we put on the songs the less they play.   If we had tons of titles in each category that all had a wide variety of styles and tempos along with a big selection of different artists it would be no problem.   But, for most formats we have to work with a much tighter system.

Some set ups end up with not a lot of rules and they try to 'make it up in the editing.'   Others just let it rip and hope that the log comes together hitting all the goals.  Finding the balance here takes careful analysis.  Some people can really edit a log and may do well with just a few rules.  Others may struggle trying to keep all the elements in balance and we see bad flows, weird rotation patterns, and other areas that can hurt your TSL due to the music flow.

Getting the music flow as balanced as possible takes a very careful and well thought out plan.   Before you head into spring make sure you've taken an objective look at your system and setup.  It could be more important as that big contest you're lobbying for.  

The Big THAW from Winter Apocalypse 2014 - Radio to the Rescue

Since before Christmas over half of the country, and probably 75% of the population, have suffered through the frozen cold and record snow storms.  One 'polar vortex' after another, freezing everything with record lows and dumping record snow falls on nearly everyone from the Rockies to the East Coast and as far south as Georgia.

It's been going on for week after week for the last month or more and it's frozen commerce, transportation, retail sales, and just about everything except snow blower and winter glove sales.

No doubt it's also frozen your local business scene.   Stores closed, no one shopping for cars, people venturing out only for the essentials - and business is down on the retail level a lot.   Look at this CNBC report on the impact from all the Winter we've experienced on the economy here.   They claim it's above 15 billion and it's just Valentines Day.

This Winter is truly causing an Economic Apocalypse and the business' you call on are not going to have the revenue they expected for 1st quarter.  In fact they'd just like the parking lot cleared and the consumers to be able to get out of their driveways to stop by.

Now keep in mind that the economy is not in a big slump.  For many households they are earning more and their economy is recovering at a stronger clip than we've had for the last 5+ years since the big recession of 2008 hit.  Jobs have returned, car sales were at a record pace before the Winter Mayhem, the housing market is recovering.  All signs were pointing to a healthy 1st quarter and your stock portfolio is probably looking pretty healthy.  The reality is that we have the money and the income but we can't get out of the driveway.

The good news is that in the next couple of weeks the temps are returning to more normal levels, Spring is only 5 weeks away and soon we'll be complaining about the heat.  This will pass.

The opportunity is that we've been in our CAVES for 8 weeks or more now.  Barely able to get out to get for Milk.  The pent up demand for this Spring has HUGE potential.   The timing is PERFECT for any business to pounce on the warming temps and snow melting and feed off this pent up demand.  The key question we have to ask our clients is - are you ready for the GOLD RUSH of 2014?   We happen to have a very strong audience and we can turn your message around quicker than anyone else and still reach the whole market.  Radio has THE STORY and THE ANSWER here.

Now is the time to put together your 'Good Bye Winter from Hell' package.   Create creative examples of sales campaigns your clients can tap into.   Put together effective packages with great coverage in key dayparts.  Get your advertisers all set to make the most of the avalanche of customers, revenue and business just ahead.   Maybe pass out some cheap sunglasses as you present the packages.

Just don't spend too much time brainstorming and get it out there before everything thaws.

2014 - The Year Of Live and Local?

Standing back an looking at the 'big picture' for 2014 in Radio you can clearly see one big topic bubbling up that affects our whole industry.

There are 2 forces with very different goals and operating platforms that are clearly set to square off in many markets.

One side is the big platform broadcasters who have stations in much of the top 100 markets and beyond.  Really you only have 2 owners - Clear Channel and Cumulus with platforms big enough to cover the territory.  Their scope and size clearly opens the door for a much wider view of the markets, talent, budget priorities, product distribution and sales opportunities.

The other side are the smaller groups and individual owners who really can't build a national perspective and their focus is rallying around being Live and Local.  The focus is supposed to be stronger on local personalities, community involvement, and a local focus that can easily get lost on a national platform station across the street.

But, does the audience care?

In the end it comes down to the 'entertainment and engagement meter' inside each listener.  If you are going to make an impact with Live and Local you have to connect to the audience.  It isn't going to happen because it's a buzz word at a convention or if we run 'your local station' sweepers every quarter hour.  We all know deep down for Live and Local to work you have to walk the walk and have the talent to talk the talk.

Developing talent into impacting entertainers that truly engage the audience is not something you pull out of the fridge and heat up in the microwave.  This takes strong talent, skilled coaching, and a drive to truly engage the local audience.

Will the live and local teams find the resources, budget and patience to build their platform?  You know the national players will continue to extend their strongest talent and use regional and national resources to contribute to their products.

In many ways 2014 offers a recovering economy, new opportunities and the Live and Local teams may have more resources to develop the strategy.   With 2014 be a turning point year or another year where opportunities are left on the wayside?  

2014 Part 2

Part 2 of 3 on some observations the year ahead in radio focus on Metrics and Research.

Research - Some may say that we got very 'research happy' in the 90s and the early years of the new century.   Many stations and clusters had regular perceptual studies and music tests as a regular part of the budget with studies every hear.  

Now with the PPM - Media Monitors racking up scoring for the music in many markets or stations in many non PPM markets just living off the airplay data in Mediabase or BDS.   The recession also trimmed back many research budgets and this could be a year when we see research start to return to our brands and products.

PPM based 'research' is also focused on 'real time' data overlaying the minute by minute ratings with the music and content we suddenly had a picture of what was really going on.  The first reaction to this instant CRT-X-Ray of the audience has been real defensive.  Many have stripped the stations trying to stop tune out at any costs.  Are we losing the foundations of our brands, killing local engagement, stifling personality, and becoming boring by stripping down?  Are these the precise elements we need to make an impact with an audience filled up with media choices that just play songs?  Are these moves doing way more longer term damage than good to our brands?  It might be better to work more on raising the bar on personality, content, engagement, and entertainment and find a way to do it without wasting lots of time.  

The news is obvious that any research is going to have to come back with new technology and taking advantage of all the ways our audience now communicates.   Reaching for a random sample of numbers from the phone book isn't going to tell us anything about 'today's audience.'  Most of them under 45 don't have land lines and many don't use their phones for talking at all.  You need to reach them through their phone, tablets and laptops with studies that are quick, fun and sharp looking.  We will also need to be able to use social media to gather sample and lure them.

The sample itself has also changed.  The idea of a random sample has moved more to a managed panel of people in the PPM world and don't be surprised to see Nielsen/Arbitron move to more managed panel samples outside of the top 50 markets.  A lot of Nielsen's work in other projects in radio, retail and other industries has moved more to managed panels - it's a lot less expensive.

We also have lots of opportunities for 'quick research' with our social media fan bases and listener databases.  The key is developing an overall strategy and plan here - much of what we do is very random right now.  It seems like we have lots of pieces of research all scattered around the desk - how we build a real strategy with the pieces is a real challenge to every programmer.

When you look at the key ingredients in today's brands it's all about knowing what the customer is consuming and trying to know what they want.   Netflix gathers tons of data and categorizes every show to try and keep ahead of what the audience is looking for.  Amazon breaks down every product on who bought it and then pulls out the meta-data and tries to forecast your next order.  Really we don't have much 'meta-data' to work with.   Or do we really have some data and some potential to gather data on our brands and music that we could build into a stronger strategy?

Metrics-Ratings:  The last post on the year ahead for Nielsen/Arbitron in this blog really covers some of this territory.  Still when you look ahead for 2014 the changes ahead for the Ratings will impact us all a lot.  Really when you look at Arbitron it was often rather slow moving.   It took decades to get out of the 'printed book' world and much of the 'software' to break out the numbers came from outside sources that Arbitron eventually bought.   The sample struggled to reach younger audiences and it still clings to the antique pen and paper/recall data collection system with the diary for around 75% of the markets.

How will all this change as Nielsen gets more comfortable in the 'audio' world?  Will we have stronger samples in all markets?  Will they be more based on managed panels than random samples?  Will we begin to move away from being the 25-54 and 35+ media with ratings that actually capture younger cells?  Will we team up with Nielsen and start to do more custom breakouts of the data and quit leaning so much on 25-54 ranks? Will the diary finally be replaced with real time data gathering in other 75% of the markets?

There is a lot going on with the research and ratings fronts as we head into 2014.  In many ways the real keys to our success in the future lies in learning a lot more about an audience that is evolving and changing at an ever increasing rate of speed.  As our communication systems speed up so does the change they produce.

Clearly in 2014 we NEED to start building a lot more of a strategy and evolve our research.  We've cut back on this area over the last 10 years and even before that our systems and research methods were antiquated in sample, data gathering, and we kept looking at the same data over and over.  

Happy 2014

Happy New Year!!  Here at the start of the 2014 it looks like there is a lot to look forward to in Radio.  The Economy is improving and we still have a strong media with a great reach.   Yes our loyalty is challenged as more and more options for music, news and entertainment pop up everywhere but we are clearly in the game.    

So what can we look forward to in 2014?  Let's start with a look at music:

Music - 2014 looks like it could be a year of SURPRISES.

Pop: 2013 saw 3 big divas return with Lady Gaga, Katy Perry and Beyonce.   Plus we also had lots from the last group of divas - J-Lo, Mariah, and Britney, trying -- but not in peak form.  Rihanna continued to be a presence as she gears up for a 2014 release - this could be a big year for her.  Taylor Swift will also be releasing in 2014 but it looks like there could be room for a new pop-diva to emerge over the Summer.  Justin Timberlake was also a big presence in 2013, which will likely fade in 2014 as the best from his releases has already hit.   Will Maroon 5 be able to pull in another big round of huge pop songs?   Will Bruno Mars pull in a bigger presence?  Then there's Miley and Bieber boy - is it about 'them' or their music.  While there are plenty of big stars here you can sense the timing is there for some big new faces to emerge.

The Alt - Indie Rock movement seemed to have a healthy presence in the overall music stages throughout 2013.  It started the year with Imagine Dragons, Lumineers, Monsters and Men, and Fun.  Then we witnessed Capitol Cities and Lorde finish off the year strong.  Will this movement pull in some fresh faces for 2014?  Will we see follow up power from some of the artists here or are they one hit wonders?

Rock - Not much going on here, but will 2014 pull in a big surprise act that rocks the house?  The potential is there for a group with some 'indie cred' to break through here with the right look and feel.

Country - While Pop music still has a lot of the music spotlight at center stage Country keeps building more and more younger stars.  It seems like we get 2 or 3 fresh faces every year that seem to emerge and grab the spotlight. There is no reason for this to change in 2014.  Nashville has built a great team that works well with Radio, covers TV well and has kept up with all the social media tricks.  Their model is also not built solely on selling CDs --  touring, endorsements, videos, fan engagement, and celebrity all play big roles and Nashville seems to execute all these roles consistently.

Rap - Hip Hop - It seems like we always have new faces here to watch - but the need to push the edge all the time often limits the reach here.   The movement of the last 4-5 years of more and more Hip Hop integration into pop music seems destined to continue - it's become too valuable and important.  But at the same time there seems to be an authentic underground that closes itself off.

Dance - It seemed like there were clear signs of a breakthrough for Dance music, but it seemed flatten out as 2013 rolled on.

One trend to keep an eye on is 'music with a message.'  Just go back and look at Blurred Lines, Royals, and many other big hits that had a lot of lyric power in them.

A year to keep your eyes and ears open you can almost smell a change or a surprise in the 'music weather' brewing.

There are lots of other topics to look at for 2014.   Over the next week let's take a look at 4 other areas that could be important 2014 areas.  Happy New Year!!!!!!!

A Nielsen Audio Wish List

One of the biggest 'change events' for our whole industry in 2013 was Nielsen buying Arbitron.   Nothing hits more at the heart of our world than the ratings and having it switch to Nielsen and actually start the morphing into a central measurement service that covers many different media is destined to have a big impact.   

It's also Christmas time so let's combine these 2 topics and have a seat on Jolly Ole Nick Nielsen's lap and see what he can fit under the tree.  

Here's my list Nick Nielsen:  

1. Sample Size - Great move to improve the sample sizes in the PPM markets and especially in the 30-50 ranked markets where it was very weak.  But let's not stop there.  The smaller markets that are still on diaries still need to have a much stronger sample.  There is so much weighting going on in these markets it's very hard to trust the data - especially in the younger all important Millennial age cells. Nick we've been very good broadcasters outside of the top 50 markets serving our communities and in many markets you can sell to someone other than the big 3 giving you some diversity in your client base. 
2. The Diary - Let's face it the diary is completely useless technology to collect data with.  With most of the population under 40 this is sort of like bring out a quill and a bottle of ink.  We can see it all the time with the lack of response from the under 40 year olds and also we have to wonder - 'are the ones who will cooperate with this antique data collection system' representative of the general population or are they a very tight sub cell?  Perhaps they are Amish? With today's new smart phones there are many more ways to collect data that is way more accurate - similar to how the PPM data works.  Also consider the huge costs of processing all this paper, postage and recruiting a fresh sample every week.  
3.  The Demos - We drew up the 25-54 standard back in the 70s and 80s when the baby boomers were all represented in this broad cell.  It became the standard for using radio, but now it's time to move on and realize that generations evolve and age and we need a system and a standard that is not pegged on what was the demo profile of 30 years ago.  Nielsen is the one with the data and the one who stands in the middle of the buyers of our media and our media builder/seller side.  Education, some innovation, and look at the design of the software and the reports.  There are ways for Nielsen to start a new revolution here and give radio a chance to show that it can impact many important generations - not just one.  
4. Costs - Radio operators bare the brunt of the costs and in the future it looks like our sample will be providing data for a number of media operators with Nielsen offering lots of sellers and buyers data based on the sample they draw for 'audio' measurement.  Their buying pool will increase, that should mean that Radio costs can come down.   

Many of us have some fears here.  Will Radio get lost in a sea of competitors that all show up in some form of combined media standard?  Will our needs in gathering data take a back seat so mobile media, pure play streamers, video services, Social Media sites and web portals all grow at our expense when a 'standard' is set?  But, in the end it's time to give the buyers the data they need and do our best to make 'Audio' broadcasting the star of the show.  

Surely you can add to the list.   So have a seat on Nick Nielsen's knee and have a great holiday.   

Endorsements On A Whole New Level!!

Next time you or one of your personalities is approached for an endorsement don't just take the product or service and just ramble on - go the extra mile.   The new Ron Burgundy campaign for the new Durango should serve as some inspiration.  

Ron goes all out and completely in character for this assignment.  He also does over 65 versions of the campaign with many destined for Social Media and You Tube exclusive placement.  The spots also serve as a great promo for what will likely be The Movie Of The Year in December.  Will goes the extra mile and these full on character spots get your attention.

We are seeing more clients jump into endorsements and live spots.  It may sound like a simple - easy concept but to make them really work you have to get creative.  Next time you set out to build an endorsement make sure your creative mojo is turned up all the way.  

How Much To Post on Facebook??

As we work with Facebook we often end up in a discussion on how much should we post?  We often see articles by Facebook gurus claiming that we should wait 3 hours between posts.  This stems from the metric that the average life of a post to gathering likes, comments and shares is around 3 hours.  Frequency of posts is also an etiquette consideration.  Just like a person who 'talks too much' in a conversation you don't want to come off as dominating in the relationship with the 'friends/fans.'  You also have to ride the balance of selling and building your brand on Facebook and engaging the audience without coming off with too much 'hype.'

Considering the etiquette,  hype factor and the post life there is also another huge factor that we have to consider that that's the traffic level.  The average user posts around 1.1 times a day or 36 times a month.  So if you have 500 friends and maybe 20 fan pages you end up with 500-600 posts a day.   That's  probably around 30 posts an hour or one very 2 minutes.  Take the peak hours from 7a-10p and you are way above 30 per hour.

I have around 400 people on my personal page and I checked the posts on my news feed in mid-day and there were over 75 posts that were around an hour old.   Add 8-10 'sponsored posts' in the feed and then another 20-30 posts that were older (but still seeing enough action in likes, comments, shares and views to push themselves back into the feed) and you can see that even in 1 hour you can find your post is 1 of 100.  

Also consider that if you check in on Facebook 6 times a day - every 3 hours your news feed could have 250 to 300 posts on it.  Given those facts it would see that only posting every 3 hours is probably not enough for your brand or station to really have any impact unless your posts are all super engaging.

Think about like this.  Let's say you have around 250 commercials on your station from 6a-7p would you expect a client who only runs 1 commercial a day to have any impact with their message?  Probably not - no one on your sales team would suggest such an schedule because it won't produce any impact.  The same frequency issues are there in Facebook posts also.

Facebook is getting more crowded every day.  Maybe not with more users but with all the revenue activity on it now that there are stockholders to keep happy there is a lot more on any news feed than there was a few years ago.  In the end if you want to have an impact for your brand or personality you have to engage more to keep up.

Of course you have to balance it out.  Having a post every hour that 'another 20 minute music marathon is starting now' is a waste and probably won't make news feed anyway, but just getting in 4 posts from 6a-8p will only work if all those posts are 'killers.'   You have to have both - a healthy quantity of posts and also have very engaging posts that catch the eyes and interaction with your fans.