Phones - Research and the Elections

As we wade through the endless stream of political spots on every media with all their accusations there is another story behind this fall election in the U.S. that could be a major factor.  The telephone based polls that candidates and the media has used to track the public since the 40s could end up being very mis-leading.

Nearly every analysis of the polls shows a Republican leaning wave moving the House and maybe even the Senate to a Republican lean.  But, those polls are mostly done on by calling land line households since reaching out to cell phone users for research is costly and difficult. The national polls are more likely to use cell phone households, but on the local and state level it's still pretty costly and not used that much.  Much of the polling data being analyzed for this mid-term election could be off the mark.

In radio we know the cell phone only households and their effect on research.  For years we've struggled with incomplete data in the under 40 age cells and watched our samples decay.  Arbitron and Nielsen have both retooled their sample systems and now do a better job including cell phone households.  Still, we struggle with not enough cell phone sample, but at least we have a little more accuracy.

The Pew Center has reviewed the cell phone only households for the political polls and released the following data:

You can see that the Cell Phone only households are more likely to lean Democratic changing the pools by around 2 percent.   When you factor in that most research has a 3-5% variance and then add the 2% Democratic lean many of the Republican margins could suddenly be a lot closer than expected.

Could we see an election here where polling is suddenly in question?  Much like the famous Dewey - Truman election in the late 40s where polling predicted Dewey would win.  Back then phones were not in all households and when the non-phone households voted the polls were suddenly skewed.

We have relied on phone based research for nearly all our data on the audience over the years.  This fall we may see in a big way that the phone is flawed.  Cell phones, VOIP, Skype and so many other ways of personal communication have made the land line a thing of the past.  We - and the politicians - can't rely on it anymore for data on the audience.

The Boring APP

So you have your I-Phone/Pod-Touch, Android, and Blackberry apps all up and running and now your stream can go anywhere.  You've entered the new mobile digital age and are all set for the future.  While your audio is streaming along -- what's happening on that little 3.5 inch screen?   Chances are your logo is just sitting there - perhaps we can see the title of the song, perhaps a tag link to buy the song with a pic of the CD and maybe a note on the station, but little else.

There is a lot more you could do with that screen I bet.   Maybe some pics of recent promotions, a shot of the morning show with a big guest, or a visual plug for an upcoming concert or promotion.  You might also be able to add weather or other info that's worth tuning in for.  There is a lot more that we could and should be doing with these apps.  Just getting in the App Store is not enough.

Cell Phone Only Households

Arbitron has been working overtime to include more and more Cell Phone Only households into their reports in nearly every market.  Diary or PPM you will now see more of these growing number of households included.

They have integrated both the Telephone Based Sample base and a Address Based Sample into their overall sample pool.   The national average for Cell Phone Only households is 22.7% as of the 2009 research from the Center of Disease Control (they do 2 studies a year that have become the benchmark here).

Of course we'll see this number increase as the data is updated and if you look at various demos (like 18-34s) the number is much higher than 22.7%.

It's also different for individual markets and Arbitron has just released a cell phone only household map of the country for the Arbitron Markets.   Take a look (Arbitron Cell Phone Only Map).

Wow Cell Phone Households - Big JUMP

The Center for Disease Control has released a preview of their bi-annual study on Cell Phone Households from the last 1/2 of 2008.   Of course it grew again and now over 20% of the households in the country have no land line.  Another 14.5% take almost all of their calls on the cell phone despite having a land line.  

That's nearly 35% of the country and if you break it down by demos and over the last 6 years it's a pretty amazing graph: 

In 18-34s is around 40% - nearly half and at the rate it is growing it will probably hit 50% of this demo before 09 ends.   Even when you move to the 45+ cells it's around 15%.  

Keep in mind that this study was from last year and with the recession hitting so hard as the year wrapped up no doubt the growth of Cell Phone Only households will pick up even more.  Cutting out the 20 or 30 bucks a month to the land line is really pretty painless - gee now I can add the data package and not even notice it.  

Aside from the trends in the audience here we also have to realize that this greatly affects our ability to have somewhat accurate audience ratings and research.  Connecting with Cell Phones for research is very hard or impossible as we all know seeing the shrinking samples in our audience research.   We also have to look at the audience research we do in music tests and perceptual studies.  If they are based on telephone samples they are missing at least 20% and probably closer to 40% of the population and in the younger demos it's over 50%.  

If you look at the early snippets from the study you can see that the cell phone only world is different on many levels.  We'll see more in a few weeks when the whole study is released.  You can read the preview here. 

Cell Phone ONLY Households

The National Center for Health Statistics has released the bi-annual survey on cell phone only households for the 2nd half of 2007 and the 18+ percentage of cell phone only households is now up to 15.8%!!!!!

This percentage has grown from Jan-June 2004 at 5% to nearly 16% in just 3 years. And the growth is really increasing. The percentages grew 14% in the last 1/2 of 2007 compared to the first half. Looking further back the percentages from the first 1/2 of 2006 were up 6% over the last half of 2006. At this rate of growth the numbers will quickly hit 20%, it could happen when they release the first half of 2008 around September. So it's likely that right now we are over 20% of the adult population in cell phone only households. By the end of 2008 we will probably be over 25%.

They are also tracking the people who may have a land line but take nearly all their calls on the cell phone. That's another 13.1%. So nearly 29% of the households really don't use the land line as a phone. When Arbitron calls - 29% of the adult population is out of the game. And I repeat it's growing every day.

Now look at the data by age cells:

-------Jan-June 2004 ---- July-Dec 2007

18-24 ---10.3%--------------30.6%

25-29---- 9.9% --------------34.5%

30-44-----4.4%-------------- 15.5%

45-64----- 2.3%-------------- 8.0%

65+ ---------.9%-------------- 2.2%

This is not just 18-24s and college students - look at the rate of growth in 30-44s and now the biggest percentage is 25-29s. If your target audience is 18-44s you are well over 20% of the households using only cell phones. The number is even higher if you factor in the land line households who really don't take calls on the land line.

You can read the study here.

Using landlines for Arbitron samples and research in general is quickly becoming a very biased sample that leaves out big chunks of the population. Obviously we NEED new answers here. Find a way to call cell phones or start using the web, email, myspace?, maybe text messaging, or other new ways to contact the sample. Our data is quickly becoming too in-accurate to be credible even with People Meters we still don't have a reliable and accurate sample with land line phones as the base.

The Future of In Car Tech

We've seen the promise from Ford with the Sync system. Seen the in dash navigation systems. Watched a DVD in the back seat with the kids. So what technology is heading for the car and which of the new devices is important to the driver/audience?

Recently Forbes Auto did a survey and an article on 5 trends in the dashboard that are coming on and followed up with a survey on their usefulness and which ones the audience is excited about. Along with a general survey of the options they wanted the most in their cars.

The innovations included:

In Car Computing - A full WiFi based system that goes on-line and can store videos and music as well as surf the net and listen to Internet radio.

Factory Infusion - A complete control system for the car controlled by speaking. It's like the Ford Sync system but it goes further to heat, defrost, traction control, wipers, headlamps, etc.

In Car Navigation - We've all seen this and it's pretty much heading towards standard equipment.

Blue Tooth - We've also seen this and it's probably going to be standard as more cities outlaw driving while talking on a cell phone without a headset or hands free.

MP3/Ipod connectivity - From just having a jack to plug in to having a full interface with an Ipod to connect to the radio with full quality.

On to the survey - which innovations impressed the drivers?

A study conducted by GfK Custom Research, based in New York, asked adults what options they would be interested in having on their car: GPS Navigation was the most-desired technology out of the five spotlighted in this article. Internet access was the least desired of all, with 24 percent of respondents expressing interest. Built-in Bluetooth capability was likewise near the bottom in terms of desirability, with 38 percent of those surveyed expressing interest.

Low-tech and long-used remote starting systems that allow vehicles to be started and warmed up without having to get in the car and turn the ignition topped GfK's list.

Gee they see the advantages of GPS and getting the car started from the store before you get in. The rest of all the high tech stuff looks like it's cool for the geeks and makes the car companies think they are going to sell more with all this innovation and gadgets. The reality is that driving the vehicle comes first and surfing the Internet or trying to control the car by yelling at it isn't high on the list. While we may all fear the Internet coming to the car it doesn't look like the audience sees a lot of advantages in having it on the dashboard. Perhaps they are worried that driving is already getting distracting enough as we watch people weaving down the road as if they are drunk only to see at the light that they are just talking on their cell phones.

You can read the article from Yahoo here.

PIC&N??? Plus Cell Phone Only Numbers

A couple of News highlights from this week:

Re-Regulation: The FCC is proposing new regulations on broadcasters that would force more localism, round the clock staffing, a return to citizen advisory boards and more coverage of news/politics. Some of the trades are claiming that the de-regulation pendulum is swinging back to more regulation. We've been in this de-regulation mode for over 20 years now in radio and many have forgotten the old days of the FCC.

They used to have a policy at the FCC where broadcasters had to operate in the Public Interest Convenience and Necessity - PIC&N. It looks like we are heading towards a return to those standards. In reality it's a good move for broadcasters. We need to get back in the business of being local champions if we are going to navigate through the new media and multi-platform fog. I suspect we'll see a lot of industry wide moves to push back on this change, but perhaps we should embrace it instead. It sort of reminds me of the U.S. auto industry fighting MPG standards only to watch imports move in and win a lot of market share with higher MPG cars. We are seeing industry after industry embracing 'green' and working harder on community image.

In programming we'd better start preparing to serve our communities better, even if the FCC doesn't push forward. But, in an election year and with lots of congress behind the movement for their own election sake we'd better start preparing now.

Cell Phones: We also got some other news from the govt. This time from the Center for Disease Control with a new study on cell phone only individuals. Yes, the CDC did the study because they collect data and just like our ratings systems they are struggling with polling the cell phone only individuals. You can read the USA Today report on the study here. The cliff notes version:

• Cell Only Households - 14%
• Cell and Land Lines - 59%
• Land Line Only - 24%
• 18-30s Cell Only - 30% and growing every day.

These numbers were compiled in the first 6 months of 07 so the cell only numbers will only be bigger when we get another report in 6 months.

Also in the news Arbitron has announced that they will FINALLY be trying to develop a plan to get to the cell phone only households. They are going to try and use an 'address based' sample and match up the addresses with the phone data then try and use the mail to reach out to the cell only folks and get permission to call them on their cell. The grand experiment starts in 08 and may be used in some markets in 09. By then we could see over 40% of the 18-30s being excluded from the sample and maybe 23% or more from the 12 plus population.

All of this doesn't take into account the people who don't pay attention to their land lines at all. They have one out of habit, but they have really converted to the cell phone for most of their communication. The land line is hooked up to an answering machine and call ID and unless they know who you are - it's off to voice mail land. We are not moving fast enough here - relying on the snail mail to help is going to be a slow process. We could pick up the pace if we could work on texting, emailing, and even reaching out more in the web world to gather more sample.

Cell Phones Instead of PPM!!!

Tom Taylor's new Taylor On Radio-Info daily e-newsletter brought up a very interesting point in the November 20th issue on the technology to use Cell Phones instead of the Arbitron PPM system. Tom speculates on why Arbitron doesn't move to a Smart Cell Phone system instead of trying to equip enough people with PPM devices. Tom makes a GREAT point here.

If you don't get Tom's daily newsletter in your email - you are missing a great source for Radio and it's free - go here to subscribe.

Let's dive in and take a little deeper look at the possibility here.

• The technology has already been developed. Looking at the IMMI website they describe a system where the mic on the cell phone records 10 sec of audio every 30 seconds then links to a server and compares the files with audio recorded from radio station in the area. When they hit a match you have a listener.

• There are also other systems out there from Ipsos (a French based international research firm) that was planning on teaming up with The Media Audit to also produce cell phone based data collection. Ipsos already does this type of research in some European countries, but they don't explain their system on-line. When Clear Channel's campaign to look for rating alternatives faded away it looks like The Media Audit may have tabled the idea.

In reality moving to the Cell Phone for measurement would be a HUGE advantage and while PPM is still in it's infancy it's one that our industry NEEDs to push to pursue.

Look at the cost of rolling out a device like PPM with encoding all the stations, getting 100s of thousands of the devices out in the field, and spending tons on recruiting people to keep the meters. And now we have the big sample issue. Still using the old 'land line' system of contacting people to participate just isn't working - especially with all the younger demos. You can easily see a time in the next 5 years where the land line sample reach under 50% of the population and in 10 years a land line will be only for DSL or maybe TV delivery.

We are nearing a point where over 80% of the population has a cell phone and even in the older demos and lower income households the cell phone is becoming the affordable and easy way to communicate.

Even if PPM is rolled out in the top 70 markets we still have the sample issues and in the rest of the markets we will still be using diaries for at least 10 more years or longer. Bet on longer here as the cost of PPM is high and markets over #50 will be pushed out as costs soar. The real issue here is sample - land lines are a dead end. Throwing more money at people won't get them to bother - we have to get more passive in gathering the data. Just like the Web records your visit to this site, how long you stay, and where you came from - we can gather data on radio listening from cell phone dectors in the same way.

People are up-grading cell phones at a rapid pace and soon we will probably see most of the cell phones be the smart ones that could take on the technology to monitor radio usage.

It could also be possible to team up with the cell phone providers and be able to pull in HUGE samples. Paul Allen (a Microsoft founder) recently claimed that soon we will see cell phone services given away for the marketing power in you hand. It could also be 'given away' by allowing you to use your cell to monitor your radio listening. How about 'free texting' if you sign up to be included in the sample? I bet that would bring on some participants.

The technology also needs to be tweaked. In Tom's piece Arbitron's Pierre Bouvard brings up that cell phones are in purses and pockets and could be left behind or in front of a radio all day. PPM has a motion detector to determine if it's on a person or left behind. The IMMI system also relies on the mic in the phone and comparison software to determine who you are hearing.

How about the smart phones and just put in a little inexpensive chip that would receive the FM or AM signal. Not only could we get radio on cell phones, but the receiver could also pick up the encoded signal from us and the data could be passed on the phone network to the ratings service server. The systems in place download a program to the cell phone that sets up the data transfer. You could send it to 100s of thousands of phones already in the system.

All we need is accurate data on who has the phone for age/sex and where they live. In fact we could also see where they are with the GPS function.

While we could go to the trouble of calling their land lines and paying everyone lots of cash every month to stay in the sample or we could go another route. How about just taking a random sample of the data from the 100s of thousands of cell phones pumping in data and then sending off a text message where they verify age/sex and we have our sample.

It's an ideal world where we have accurate data, coming in daily and it would probably cost a lot less than building a whole PPM system. Before we fund Arbitron's venture into building a proprietary infrastructure for the PPM, maybe we should look at funding the usage of Cell Phones instead. Not only would we get the data we'd also have FM/AM radios in every one's hands all the time. WOW.

Perhaps we need to quit complaining about sample issues and let new technology help us. There are lots of ideas and speculation in my piece, but we need to quit whining and start 'doing it.'

Land Lines vs Cell Phones

Since I live by Notre Dame we get lots of local news on things going on at the campus. Let's not talk about the painful football situation, but something almost as painful. Of the 7000 students that live in the dorms they just released the figure for the number of students that requested to have their land line telephone jacks in the rooms turned on. THE NUMBER - 18!!!!!!!! We don't even need too translate that into a percentage - it's so small why bother. Of course the students use their cell phones and have no need for land lines.

How will Arbitron contact them to fill out a diary? How will we research their music tastes? How will Hillary do any polling on them for the election? They won't. Will these people get a land line when they leave school - why? And if they did why answer it?

We need a new way to gather samples. Gathering them in the mail, via email, social networks, IM them, or maybe we can text them. Up until now Arbitron and most researchers are reluctant to bring in another sample base to the mix. When you have 2-3 different ways of gathering sample it does change the universe you are working with and all the probability and stat formulas we work with suddenly become very confusing and complex. But, we need to find a way. Running around with data that only talks to the last people left with a land line - the baby boomers and seniors is not telling us the real picture. It's going to be up to us to keep the pressure on the people doing our research to seek out new ways of building the sample.

We need to talk to the audience.

14-24s Radio's Lost Generation - Under 14s Radio's New Frontier

Remember when you got that long awaited new toy back in your pre-teen days? That extra cool electronic device, maybe a guitar, an Atari game system or a fancy new bike that you just had to have. You shed other interests or gave up other desires for that magic 'thing' that you thought would be the ultimate. Then after you played with it for a week or maybe a few months or maybe even a year somehow the magic just wore off. It sat in the corner or maybe it broke and it just faded into the pile of junk we seem to gather in life. Suddenly something else came along that looked a lot more interesting or perhaps it didn't live up to all your expectations and you moved on.

As we look at all the new media toys like IPods, Internet radio stations like Slacker or Pandora, Satellite Radio, I Phones, the latest Cell phones, social networking, IM, text messaging, video sites and whatever is next on the web that challenges radio for entertainment you can bet that a lot of them could end up just being the new toys for the 14-24s or Millennial generation.

Remember that the Millennial generation (born from the early 80s to 2000) are the first generation that largely grew up in the personal computer age. When they hit elementary school in the mid-late 80s the Apple computer was already in nearly every classroom. Most in the U.S. saw a computer enter the home and have some Internet access in their teens and the younger ones have never lived in a home without a computer, over 50 cable channels, VCRs, DVDs, complex gaming systems, hand held games, cell phones and the web with high speed access at their finger tips. They have embraced all the new technology and shunned the old much like the boomers jumped on TV, instant world communication, and jet travel.

Radio's role with the Millennial generation was clearly diminished because Radio didn't pay much attention to this new emerging generation. Spending it's merger and Wall Street diminished programming resources on the older 25-54 generation deemed more instantly rewarding by the forces in command, radio began to fade. But, so did broadcast TV, the record industry, and land line telephones. The Millennial generation had NEW TOYS to play with and try out.

But, how long will the new toys last? Look at the cell phone in your hand. If it's more than 2 years old chances are it's starting to look like a relic. Even if you are a tech savvy person you probably never even figured out all it's toys or uses. Even my daughter's phone has lots of features that she rarely uses or doesn't want to bother with.

Remember all this new media technology is new. While logging on the Slacker Radio looks like an ultimate personalized web radio station programming it to play your favorite songs takes hours and hours of sorting through thousands of selections. Building and maintaining your IPod that holds thousands of songs is a daunting task ripping CDs into I Tunes and spending time every couple of weeks downloading new songs. Then you have to rate them, build playlists, and keep the database up to date so you can find that favorite within the thousands of titles. Building that cool Face Book or My Space site may be fun at first, but maintaining it and keeping up with all the friends, adding new pics, adding video clips and communicating with all these friends that may live on the other side of the country. It could be so complex and time consuming that sooner or later the new toy starts to sit in the corner.

You also have a new generation on the way that's younger than the Millennial generation. Right now they are under 10 years old. Will they be as excited about all this new media as the older generation above them? Or will they more likely establish their own turf starting 5 years from now as the first of them enters high school?

If radio starts thinking and planning now latching on to this new generation could be the 'turnaround wave.' Will they rebel against all the pitfalls of lives on the web and seek more personal and imaginative communication and entertainment options? Could radio's simplicity of use and low cost coupled with links to the new media world be an attraction to younger audiences again? As we look at some of the research done on the younger side and the early PPM results we see radio having an impact in the younger side.

It's a possibility but we'll need some help from the top levels in our industry, music, ratings services actually doing a representative job measuring the new generation, and a realization that this audience has marketing value from the agencies and sales forces. Arbitron is already moving to younger demo measurement in the PPM system moving below 12 year olds. We will likely have more stable samples as we move away from the 1 week diary measurement to longer term behavior data. We will also have new bands (if HD ever happens) and at least opportunities to provide stronger products in the Internet broadcasting field. Hopefully our hunger and need to reinvent ourselves will lead us to entertain and program to have an impact in this emerging generation.

Radio could be HIP again! But, we need to start planning now.

Is Web Site More Important Than The SIGNAL????

A recent R&R article with Clear Channel EVP Tom Owens had a very interesting quote:

In an exclusive interview in the April 27 Group Programmers Special Issue of R&R, Clear Channel executive VP of content development Tom Owens explains how rapidly changing consumer preferences are leading to “abbreviated” on-air content, where terrestrial stations are the bait, the Web is the catch and all roads lead to cell phone content convergence.

You could interperet Tom's quote here that the Web is more important than the terrestrial signal. Actually I sense Tom is really seeing that the Web Site is a hugely important interactive opportunity for your station and brand. The opportunity to dig in and offer podcasts, videos, downloads, and extended content from and around our broadcasts is a golden opportunity we are all missing. Taking the interview you had with a big band and taping it, or taking the un-edited version, or creating 'extra' moments from it and loading it up to the site for everyone to catch at their convience is a great opportunity. This is just one idea - there are many more and we often don't take the time or ignore the web opportunities.

The new world in the audience is INTERACTIVITY. With all the toys and tools of the web and it's spread to every nook and cranny of our communicative world radio has an opportunity to GO BEYOND BROADCASTING and start INTERACT-CASTING. We are no longer 'broadcasting' our format, music, opinions, or personality to the masses - we can now invite them into the dialog and the product. While our options on-air may be a bit limited to a few phone calls and features our the options on the web are limitless.

Yet, we often see programmers and management viewing the web as some kind of competitor instead of a partner and very valuable tool to build your brand and station into a multi platform monster.

Tom also points out that 'all roads lead to cell phone content convergence.' Radio used to be everywhere with portable radios, in the car, in the office, and at home. But, most radios just recieved our broadcasts and the audience passively listened in. Now Cell Phones are the 'everywhere appliance.' As cell phones become even more 'connected' radio will need to attach ourselves to this appliance somehow.

One thing I can't believe we don't start promoting and building up is FM Radio's in Cell Phones. It's really just a cheap extra chip in the phone and your station is connected. No web surfing fees, no data packages needed, and it even comes in when the service is weak. There are plenty of phones that have them.

Check out this one:

http://reviews.cnet.com/Nokia_6030_cellular_phone_with_FM_radio_GSM/4505-6454_7-32175263.html?tag=pdtl-list

Beyond promoting these phones we need to start looking more and more at options to promote our entertaining content to any and all media within reason. Radio is no longer one of 2-3 options for enteratinment - it's one of thousands maybe millions. We can't overtake the rush of options only become a part of them.

Your Web Site or a Cell Phone interaction are not more important than the broadcast signal - but unless we start interacting with the audience on as may platforms as we can they will find plenty of entertainment in other places. We can either become a part of the new world or be buried in the old world.