Appointment Listening - The New Obsession!?

Programmers and the air staff have been adding new 'tricks' or 'techniques' for years to try and improve the performance in delivering audience (ratings).  Recycling the audience to other dayparts with cross promos, billboards to tempt listening through the stop set, big events to build huge tune in, daily features to build certain hours in the day (the Request Lunch), listening locations (at work) and also special programming days (All Music Mondays - 2 Fer Tues).

 

Over the last 5 years the new big tool has been Appointment Listening.  Making a specific appointment with the listener to come back.  While it may be similar to the 'billboard just before the stop set' it really serves a different purpose.  Really this technique stems from the 'Arbitron Listening Fact' that you have an 'average time spent listening' for the station for every time they tune in.   Say the average TSL with the station per tune in is 8 minutes - so they are in the process or already have spent 8 minutes - if you can get them back in 15 minutes you will probably get another 8 minutes.   So your total here is 15-16 minutes.  At the end of the 2nd tune in maybe you can hook them for another 8 minutes and end up with 20+ minutes in a 90 minute period.  

Instead of begging them to stick around through the stop set and hope they will hang for another 8 minutes now we give in to the 'law of averages' and shoot for them to come back later in the hour or maybe later in the daypart (at 12:30 catch the big Concern Announcement for U2).  

It's an effective tool and it has been shown in lots of data analysis to work.  Of course the best way to see it is in tracking the PPM meters where we can see real behavior in real time.  Who knows if any of these techniques is really accurately recorded in a diary?  Hence we now see the Appointment Billboard being the new big standout technique in the jock breaks in PPM markets and also making it's way to diary markets.   It's even bleeding into TV - just watch SportsCenter.    

The key here is to make sure you have real actionable appointments.  Just mentioning that 3 Doors Down's recurrent from last year is coming up in 15 minutes will probably not do much.  Make sure to make it big and newsworthy or entertaining enough to catch the attention of the audience.  

Rock Is NOT Dying

The news that Randy Michaels' new Merlin Media is likely moving Alternative stations in NYC and Chicago to News Talk has promoted a bit of a debate on the health of the Rock formats and especially the ones that lean on Newer Rock in their mix.   

The first reaction came when John Gehron had the following quote in a Chicago Tribune article: 

"In many of the major markets, rock is struggling," said Chicago radio veteran John Gehron, who is serving as a consultant for Merlin Media. "It's not the dominant sound that it was in the '60s and '70s, when rock really was the sound of a generation."

This prompted an old friend and pretty much the founder of Rock Radio Lee Abrams to publish a piece in Radio Ink where Lee covers the history of the format and seems to conclude that the 'Rock Era' may have passed on - read it here. 

Really the news here is that 2 stations (both Alternative) in top 3 markets are shifting formats to News Talk.  Why?  Probably the 2 biggest reasons lie in the future of the very profitable news talk format on FM and the huge revenue potential at stake for the 2012 battle for the White House.  

Just look at the revenue opportunities in the last election and now with the caps off on letting special interest groups spend money for candidates and issues the flood gates will be open.  Randy is also a complete expert in this format.  PPM has been kind to AM News Talk outlets, but we also know that they live in a world where FM radio is still the dominate band for 30 years.  It's way overdue for FM talk to make a big impact.   Randy's assumed plan to re-enter radio with new FM News/Talk properties in 2 of the top 3 markets is shear genius.  His revenue picture will be amazing when he caps his first year in business with millions in campaign revenue.   

But, IS ROCK RADIO really suffering?  If we take a look at the 12+ shares in the top 20 markets the data I dug up below from shows lots of top 20 markets where the Rock share of the pie has increased in the last 4 years.  

Yes the rock shares are up an average of 18% - note that the comparison is indexed here and 100% would be no increase or decrease.   I did not include Puerto Rico in the list.  I also included Adult Alternative stations and added them to the 'New Rock' side of the ledger - since all of them do play some new rock.  Alternative and Active Rockers are considered New Rock here.   

The other big news here is that all of these markets shifted from Diary to PPM except Houston and Philly which were in PPM in Fall 07.  Note that those 2 markets rock shares are mixed with Houston off 17% and Philly improving 9%.   

In fact Chicago is one of the most improved markets with a 50% increase.  Much of this coming from stronger shares for the Drive, the Loop and XRT.  New York was up 56% with RXP and AXQ both showing higher shares in the PPM world.  

The other factor in the perceptions of the health of Rock right now lie in the glare of the music spotlight.  It's squarely on Pop, Rap, Rhythmic and a bit on Country right now.   New Rockers are lying rather dormant - but the tides will turn there.  We've seen these cycles before. 

M Score and New Options in Measuring Audience and Music

As programmers and software developers have been playing around more and more with the new PPM data and lining it up with services like Mediabase as well as actual station logs it's starting to produce scores for the songs.  Suddenly we can see patterns of listening if we build the ultimate formula and now it's producing a number for the music.  

But what does the number mean?  That is still to be determined.  Recently I talked with Rich Meyer who developed Media Base back in the 90s to track song airplay.  Rich has now moved on to a new world creating Airplay Intel which is designed to try and make sense from all these numbers.  A number of stations already use the service and must subscribe to Media Monitors, M Score and of course Arbitron PPM to access all the data.  Rich has been working a building a reliable index to measure the data so we can capture a real audience score.  

You can read more about Rich's latest adventure at in his All Access Interview.

While Rich's work is ground breaking and the whole system very fascinating I think it's safe to wonder if this is real music research or not.  Are we tipping the scale too much in favor of PPM behavior over the audience's real like or dislike of the song?  

A New Meter for PPM

At least this meter looks like something from 2000 instead of the 80s look of the old pager meter.  While this may help get more of the panel to carry it more we still have the issue of a very small panel that doesn't change very often when you compare this sample to the larger samples we had (and still have in smaller markets) with the old diary system. Adding more sample would be a real improvement.

Perhaps the bigger news here is behind the scenes as Arbitron buys out IMMI - Integrated Media Measurement Inc.  You may wonder - who are these guys?  Here is their website.  They have been around for at least 3 years and have developed a full 'smart phone' system for collecting data on the media (radio, TV, Web, DVD, DVRs, maybe even more).  The system takes an audio sample from the smart phone every minute and then feeds the digital picture of the audio to the IMMI computer which compares the sample to what it has on file for any media it is measuring and matches up the data.  It is a lot like the BDS system we use to track airplay for music.  They have actually been measuring radio in a few markets but really haven't tried to sell much to radio operators focusing on the advertisers instead.

This could be the move to do all of the data collection on Cell Phones instead of PPM devices in the future.  And watch as Arbitron also moves into measuring all media usage with a cell phone system.

Is Your Morning Show In Sync With Brand Expectations?

It seems like every month we watch some pretty legendary all talk Morning Shows being ditched in PPM markets.  Johnny B, Dahl, Chainsaw, Lex & Terry, and probably a few more I missed have all been pushed off in the last 18 months or so.  The big reason is that they just don't perform as well in PPM as they did in the old diary days.  The big costs of the shows just doesn't seem to pay off in a PPM world.  

In the diary days shows like this seemed to drive the station outperforming the rest of the dayparts and offering a big lead in.  Most of these shows started out (many 20 years ago or more) playing some music and really being more of an integrated piece of the brand.  As they grew in popularity (or assumed popularity) and developed more content they started ditching the music all together.  For most of them going back to a mix of music and their content didn't seem possible so the buy outs or letting the contracts lapse began.

Even if you are not in a PPM market you have to wonder if your all talk morning show is really performing as well as you perceive it from the data you're getting now.

It looks like we have 2 big factors that are playing into this trend:  

1. Brand Confusion - If you are THE ROCK STATION or THE CLASSIC ROCK STATION to the audience your brand is built around music to a big degree.  The all talk morning shows are often a brand on to themselves with few ties to the whole station in any content.  When you add that they don't play music (which is a central image to the brand) they end up on an even more remote island.  Are you're station P1s also P1s of the Morning Show?  And are you Morning Show P1s fans of the music side?  Often not - we saw this most in the Howard Stern stations which often had great loyalty in the Diary world but ended up with a cliff after the show when the music hit.  Notice how most of the Howard stations ended up in a different format after he left - their music images were so low there was little to recover and keep the station alive. 
2. Sample Sizes - PPM samples are around 40% (or less) of the sample sizes we had in the diary days.  While there are more meters around every day collecting data than we had with diaries in their hands the final numbers in the diary days had more individuals in the sample and the sample changed every week.   The PPM sample is also listening to nearly twice as many stations in an average week.  Fewer individuals that spend less time with any one station, than we saw in their diary recall data, ends up with fewer opportunities to reach the super P1s for a given personality.   We also see more listening to the other dayparts in PPM than we saw in the diaries so your Morning Show is also less likely to out-perform the other dayparts.  You can't just live on a great morning show as much as you could before.  

The lesson to learn here - you Morning Show better be in Sync with the Whole Brand - not just itself.  

The Radio Week That Was 10/14

PPM: While the economy continues to be a wild ride we also still have the PPM controversy with NY and NJ looking to stop PPM with law suits.

This past week we got the first look at some of the new PPM markets - NY and surrounding areas, LA and the vicinity, Chicago and San Francisco/San Jose. So let's take a look at a few markets to see what the big difference is when we compare the 12 plus shares from July, August and September in the PPM world to the 2007 12 plus averages over the 4 books:

• New York: The Hispanic stations are off around 2.3 shares and the Urban/Rhy station are really up around 1.5 shares 12 plus over their 2007 share averages. While the Spanish formats did fall over 20% the Urban's are actually UP. The other winners were N/T (up 3.8 shares), ACs (up 2), Rock (up 2) Classic Hits/Oldies (up 1.6) and CHR (up 1 share).
• Los Angeles: Hispanic shares were off just 1 share under 4% and urban shares were off 1 share which is around 10%. The gains were similar for the rest of the formats.
• Chicago: Urban was off 4 shares, Hispanic down 1.5 shares while Rock picked up 4.2 shares, AC was up 3 shares, and N/T was up 2.4 shares.

Yes there are some big moves here with so many of the NON-Hispanic and Urban formats gaining a lot of market share. But, outside of the Urban fall off in Chicago there isn't that much downward movement. In the high Hispanic world of LA they are only off 4%. In NY look at the gains for the Urban/Rhy formats! Consider that this summer was dominated by a huge political season the big N/T gains could roll off after the election, those N/T shares could stabilize a little more as we get into 09.

Perhaps I'm biased, but it seems like a lot of action to go to lawsuits and state motivated legal action over these comparisons. We've all had books that moved up and down 10% - perhaps we should have called the state AG instead of the Arbitron rep.

Economy: While these swings and the recession (yes we are in one even through the govt. won't admit it) can be tough times for the sales team as well as the budgets. But, keep in mind that radio has CLEAR advantages for advertisers:

1. Those who take advantage of the moment and market their product with a well targeted message can make huge gains in this economy. Just like those who bought when the market hit bottom last week made huge gains this week, the same happens in the market place.
2. Radio is a bargain: The rates and production are reasonable to low and you can reach HUGE audiences without blowing the bank account.
3. Radio is proven: This isn't some Internet gamble that may not draw business. The radio model has worked for years.

It might be time to revamp the pitch and re-tool the packages with these 3 facts as keys.

It's also time to take advantage of the opportunity to build your product. We all know the road to making great/entertaining radio will come from having compelling products that interface with the community and entertain beyond the music. Reach out and really enteratin the audience - they need it. It's also your opportunity to invest now and really make gains as the markets recover.

So Where Are The New Format Ideas?

As we approach the Summer it could be a great time to see some fresh thinking and new ideas in formats and new approaches in radio programming. In many ways Summer is a time when the ratings pressure is off a little in the 4 book markets to launch something fresh and new or roll out a few experiments and see how they sound.

Last Summer we saw the 'Movin' format get rolling in a number of markets, but now it's pretty much looking like this adult rhythmic approach is not exploding. The summer before in 06 was really the wind down of a 2 year period where the Jack/Variety Hits formats were the news, but for the most part they have stabilized or even faded away in many markets. Last summer we also saw a number of Oldies stations re-vamp themselves as Classic Hits and bringing in a lot more 70s/80s titles.

So what could be on tap for this year? There are some ripe territories that could be up for grabs:

• 90s Rock - In the late 70s the oldies format was born, in the late 80s we saw Classic Rock flourish, the 80s formats largely came into being in the late 90s and here we are in the late 2000s. There is a lot of great rock from the era and a few stations have already started in this direction this year. You many not have heard of them as the launches have been rather low key and involved existing rockers tweaking their approach. The climate is ripe as today's 25-40 year olds all spent their teens and early 20s in the 90s. The dawn of Grunge, Alternative, pop alternative, Active Rock and 90s metal are all part of the rock side of the 90s and lots of it still tests very well.
• Youth Formats - We have given up in many ways on the teens and 18-24s in our research and experiments in recent years. The news isn't good and we haven't even looked carefully at this market, perhaps due to tightening budgets. It's time to get off our butts and at least take a long hard look at what could be an exciting radio product for the 15-25 year olds. Is anyone doing anything? Doesn't look like it but it could be a spot to work on. It's going to take a lot of new thinking, social networks, texting tricks, unique web approaches and a whole new approach to music. In many ways it's a lot like the launch of young formated youth stations on FM in the early 70s. They threw out every rule of the AM top 40s to make an impression and the going was tough for a while, but look at the big winnings 10 years later!!!
• 90s-Current based AC - A few jumped when the 'Fresh' approach hit in NYC, but there hasn't been much news of recent. This approach to get the more mature 25-44 female could work well in lots of markets.
• FM Talk - We've been talking about it for years but very few have turned it into a strong format.
• Rock - In almost all forms could be a good move this Summer. The music is in good shape for currents and the classic forms of the music reach into the 50 plus audience with ease now. There's Rock out there for people from the late teens all the way to the 60s in some form. Now with PPM finally moving into the top 10 markets this Fall and we're still seeing stronger shares and cume for Rock in PPM than in the Diary system.

It could be an interesting summer, but it could also be a drought in creativity and experimenting. Even though our industry desperately needs to innovate with our products there doesn't seem to be much attention focused on it. The top news seems to be the Clear Channel buy out, which is no doubt distracting all the Clear Channel stations from investing or experimenting for a while. There is also lots of news on the economy and struggling revenues which is another deterrent to innovating. We're also continuing to invest a lot of time and effort into HD Radio and not gaining anything for it. Perhaps it's time to get back to focusing a lot more on our product and the audience.

Radio's Real Advantages Go Ignored

Sometimes in our effort to 'keep up' with all the new technology and the 'cool of new' we forget a lot of the real advantages our media has.

Radio is simple to operate. For the most part you turn it on, simply adjust the volume and select the station from your favorites already punched in. No need to download anything, remember complicated web addresses, or try typing words on the numeric keyboard.

It's portable. You can take it anywhere and get solid reception for the most part. The radios are as small as I Pods or big as a wall - take your pick.

Quality. Compared to the small speakers in a laptop or always using earbuds the quality is really much better than most streams and reception is really more reliable.

We know the technology. A 5 year old can work the average car radio with little instruction. Even the 60 year old computer novice can easily get the radio to work.

There's a long ways to go to get WiFi everywhere and reliable. Look at cell phones where they have been trying to get a reliable network up for over 20 years. They still struggle, as we've all experienced, and still have one of their big advertising points around reception. What do you think it will take to WiFi the world? It could go even slower. We don't have the frequency bandwidth to auction off that we used to.

In the end perhaps radio's problem with the image we have now with the younger audience and with clients of not being 'cutting edge', or 'hip' lies in our presentation both on the air and on the streets.

On the air we haven't really evolved much - the same tactics, formats, and imaging styles have been around for decades. The look of the new radios isn't much to marvel at either - this is one of the big keys in the failure of HD radio to catch on. You don't see much new in radios, like more display screens for the RDS data. How about a system to send pictures and more data on the RDS system - just having a few text lines is very limited. While we can't push the set makers much we can work with the on-air sound and start exploring new imaging, formatics, music rotations, personalities, and promotion tactics.

On the client side radio seems to be trying to do some Internet integration into the packages and maybe a few new power point tricks in the presentations, but is that our real advantage? No doubt we need to integrate the power of our brand into the Internet, but it might be more important to sell our real advantage. That is the large reach we still have. Radio reaches over 90% of the market and it covers a specific territory. A local business or location can rely on radio to deliver an audience that is within the reach of the store or stores. Not in Russia. Is there a great website that reaches that much of the market where you can advertise on? Maybe the Google start page, but the only thing on it is their logo and the blank box to search with.

It's also a big audience. PPM has pretty much proven that you can take your CUME audience and double it for a conservative estimate of the real reach of your station. For most that's a big number. Perhaps we need a new number here - instead of the CPP or CPM how about CPC (Cost Per Cume). Take a market like Madison WI where the top cuming station is around 90,000 in Arbitron without PPM - the number in PPM is probably closer to 200,000. That's nearly half of the 1/2 million that live in the metro. Even at $200 a spot the cost per Cumer is $.00125. Now that's pretty cheap - probably less than any Google Adword that hits that many people in your market.

I know selling with CUME is probably harder than doing our pitches in Latin, but CUME will be evolving to the be the new advantage of radio and perhaps the new currency of selling tactics. It's going to take re-trainng the buyers, clients, and most importantly the sales teams. Cume is going to be our new friend and we need to learn how to use it in sales.

We have a lot going for us in this new era, but we need to get our confidence back and make the most of our positive points as we also explore ways to work with the new media opportunities. Right now our industry looks like we are surrendering and whining towards depression. Let's get our head out of the sand and realize that we're still above ground. Let's vow to make radio about the future not the past.

The Random Sample - No Longer Random or Accurate

For years in research we have relied on the "Random Sample." It's the core of statistical based research that relies on a sample instead of a census. We all know the theory that in a world of limited options we only have to talk to sampling of the population to get a confident estimate of their behavior.

When the Telephone came along sampling became easier. Suddenly research became pretty simple. Get a phone bank together and get a list of the telephone numbers in the community then put together a random formula to grab the names and call away. At first it was easy as everyone had a phone, very few had private or unlisted numbers, answering machines were rather complicated new fangaled equipment and caller ID wasn't available.

Now we are in a world where the land line phone is a relic. Over the last 20 years the database has become torn apart by more and more unlisted numbers, don't call lists, over tele-marketing, caller ID, answering machines, and the biggest issue THE CELL PHONE. So where do we go from here in research?

Perhaps the first realization we need to make is that a simple random sample is really no longer available. In most of our research we stratify the sample in some manner, perhaps making sure we hit a sample goals. In Arbitron we have ethnic groups, population distribution across the market and demographic groups involved in various sample goals. In our radio product research we also limit ourselves to target audiences and P1 preferences based on the goals of the project.

So why are we still clinging to the idea that we need to have a random sample in research for it to be accurate? What we are really doing in nearly all reserach today is building panels. Groups of respondents that fit some picture of the world we are looking at - realizing we can't see the whole picture on any subject in today's world.

I bring all of this up because we need to start looking at a different model for our panels. It will have to start with Arbitron which is still clinging to the old land line phone database.

Now Arbitron hopes to get a little wider view from the shrinking land line phone view from going back to home address based databases in combo with the land line database. By comparing the 2 they can find out who are the cell phone onlies and try to get them into the panel by going around the phone.

The problem here is that while we all probably have a mail box it also suffers from many of the same problems we have in using the telephone. We screen the mail closely and quickly sort non important items and Email competes with the mail box for a lot of communication needs.

We're going to have to reach out and build a complete database and it's going to take more than an outdated phone and address list. We need to communicate with the audience and the sample on the internet - it's their new community and finding sampling tools here needs to be explored quickly. It's a fast moving world and unless Arbitron starts to experiment here and move a lot quicker we will continue to live in the past with the audience estimates we sell with.

There are many experiments to tackle including building panels using email, text messages, social networks, and reward based incentives. Yet, we seem to find the radio research community looking at the web options with an evil doubting eye. Look at Neilsen's web site research where they are purely soliciting the panel online. You apply to join up and are rewarded if chosen to put a collector on you browser to relay your activity back to Neilsen for their data. In their TV research they gather the panel by door to door solicitations, the phone and via email. And once you are in the panel you stay for years much like PPM.

How about building a big panel that we pick from for the diary system that will still be in place for 150 to 200 markets for at least the next 5-10 years. If we had a nicely proportioned panel of 10,000 in many of the markets where we have 1000 diaries in a report we could draw from that sample and suddenly it would be easy to find enough males or Hispanics or 25-34s. We have a group that knows how to complete the survey, is better compensated (since we don't have to go to all the expense of random dialing through the whole database), and reliable to respond. A lot better answer than striving for a Random Sample in a world where no sample is random any more.

Selling CUME

One of the BIG CHANGES we face in selling with the new PPM Ratings system is the sudden advantages we have in Cume. On the other side of those advantages is the news that the AQH numbers are not as large as they have been with the old diary system.

In Arbitron's analysis of the Houston and Philly PPM data so far we are seeing HUGE Cume numbers that are a lot higher than we are used to seeing. Just look at the comparisons from Fall 06 comparing it to the diary Cume of Summer of 06 in Houston.

For years we've sold radio a lot more on frequency than we have on reach. The focus has been on how many people will hear my spot when it runs. In working with Cume the focus is really more on how many people will MY CAMPAIGN (the whole schedule) reach.

Getting the advertisers to understand that they are reaching a ton more than they imagined is a challenge. Look at the numbers here - the Cume for every station is DOUBLE what we see in the diaries and for many stations the Cume is close to TRIPLE.

The advantage here is that radio is really a MASS MEDIA. It reaches over 90% of the market and when you look at individual stations they all reach over 450,000 in Houston. In today's crowded media landscape is there any other outlet that you can go to and reach this many people? Not many if any outside of TV and when you consider that most have over 100 channels to pick from on the cable/satellite you have to buy a lot of stations to reach the levels radio delivers.

The news here really does make RADIO a great vehicle. But, we have to change the habits of the media buying community which is pretty point/AQH driven.

Why not start selling more with Cume numbers in all your presentations now???

Even if PPM won't hit your market for a couple of years you still have a lot more diary cume than you have AQH numbers. The more you start to use the Cume numbers the more the buyers and advertisers will begin to get used to them. Explain that these Cume numbers are way under estimated and reality is a lot bigger. Add a bullet point on the Cume - even if they typically 'don't care.' The more they see it, the more they will get their arms around it when PPM is in place.

Not in a PPM market? It's still important.

As buyers in regional and national spheres begin to work with PPM they will be shifting their focus to the Cume numbers for radio. Arbitron is doing it's part by mostly publishing the Cume figures in the monthly releases to the press.

How will the buyers work with 2 different systems - PPM and Diary? Will they have one set of parameters or expectations in PPM markets and different settings for the Diary markets? Maybe, but we will probably see 1 set of standards emerge here and the bigger markets will take the lead.

The sooner we start to 'prime the pump' for selling Cume the better off we will all be. Maybe including CUME in your presentations should be your New Year's Resolution in 08.

Cell Phones Instead of PPM!!!

Tom Taylor's new Taylor On Radio-Info daily e-newsletter brought up a very interesting point in the November 20th issue on the technology to use Cell Phones instead of the Arbitron PPM system. Tom speculates on why Arbitron doesn't move to a Smart Cell Phone system instead of trying to equip enough people with PPM devices. Tom makes a GREAT point here.

If you don't get Tom's daily newsletter in your email - you are missing a great source for Radio and it's free - go here to subscribe.

Let's dive in and take a little deeper look at the possibility here.

• The technology has already been developed. Looking at the IMMI website they describe a system where the mic on the cell phone records 10 sec of audio every 30 seconds then links to a server and compares the files with audio recorded from radio station in the area. When they hit a match you have a listener.

• There are also other systems out there from Ipsos (a French based international research firm) that was planning on teaming up with The Media Audit to also produce cell phone based data collection. Ipsos already does this type of research in some European countries, but they don't explain their system on-line. When Clear Channel's campaign to look for rating alternatives faded away it looks like The Media Audit may have tabled the idea.

In reality moving to the Cell Phone for measurement would be a HUGE advantage and while PPM is still in it's infancy it's one that our industry NEEDs to push to pursue.

Look at the cost of rolling out a device like PPM with encoding all the stations, getting 100s of thousands of the devices out in the field, and spending tons on recruiting people to keep the meters. And now we have the big sample issue. Still using the old 'land line' system of contacting people to participate just isn't working - especially with all the younger demos. You can easily see a time in the next 5 years where the land line sample reach under 50% of the population and in 10 years a land line will be only for DSL or maybe TV delivery.

We are nearing a point where over 80% of the population has a cell phone and even in the older demos and lower income households the cell phone is becoming the affordable and easy way to communicate.

Even if PPM is rolled out in the top 70 markets we still have the sample issues and in the rest of the markets we will still be using diaries for at least 10 more years or longer. Bet on longer here as the cost of PPM is high and markets over #50 will be pushed out as costs soar. The real issue here is sample - land lines are a dead end. Throwing more money at people won't get them to bother - we have to get more passive in gathering the data. Just like the Web records your visit to this site, how long you stay, and where you came from - we can gather data on radio listening from cell phone dectors in the same way.

People are up-grading cell phones at a rapid pace and soon we will probably see most of the cell phones be the smart ones that could take on the technology to monitor radio usage.

It could also be possible to team up with the cell phone providers and be able to pull in HUGE samples. Paul Allen (a Microsoft founder) recently claimed that soon we will see cell phone services given away for the marketing power in you hand. It could also be 'given away' by allowing you to use your cell to monitor your radio listening. How about 'free texting' if you sign up to be included in the sample? I bet that would bring on some participants.

The technology also needs to be tweaked. In Tom's piece Arbitron's Pierre Bouvard brings up that cell phones are in purses and pockets and could be left behind or in front of a radio all day. PPM has a motion detector to determine if it's on a person or left behind. The IMMI system also relies on the mic in the phone and comparison software to determine who you are hearing.

How about the smart phones and just put in a little inexpensive chip that would receive the FM or AM signal. Not only could we get radio on cell phones, but the receiver could also pick up the encoded signal from us and the data could be passed on the phone network to the ratings service server. The systems in place download a program to the cell phone that sets up the data transfer. You could send it to 100s of thousands of phones already in the system.

All we need is accurate data on who has the phone for age/sex and where they live. In fact we could also see where they are with the GPS function.

While we could go to the trouble of calling their land lines and paying everyone lots of cash every month to stay in the sample or we could go another route. How about just taking a random sample of the data from the 100s of thousands of cell phones pumping in data and then sending off a text message where they verify age/sex and we have our sample.

It's an ideal world where we have accurate data, coming in daily and it would probably cost a lot less than building a whole PPM system. Before we fund Arbitron's venture into building a proprietary infrastructure for the PPM, maybe we should look at funding the usage of Cell Phones instead. Not only would we get the data we'd also have FM/AM radios in every one's hands all the time. WOW.

Perhaps we need to quit complaining about sample issues and let new technology help us. There are lots of ideas and speculation in my piece, but we need to quit whining and start 'doing it.'

Sample Sizes and PPM

Arbitron continues to face a lot of challenges in rolling out PPM. On one side we have the reality that some ethnic formats are seeing less listening in the PPM system, on the other side the weak samples, especially in the younger 18-34 demos, are also a big concern. It sort of came to a head this past week as the news hit that Clear Channel, Cox, Radio One and Cumulus crafted a letter that calls for a full review from Arbitron. It's also spread to the media with NYC newspapers sounding some alarm bells.

Sample sizes are really at the heart of the issue. With the big increases in cost for each participant in PPM Arbitron is looking for ways to keep the sample as tight as realistically possible. In the diary samples in the medium and smaller markets 18-34 returns have been a disaster for nearly 20 years. Arbitron has tried to pay more and recruit harder but we still end up with a lot of books out there where 18-24 and 25-34 males (and even females) are doubling the value of the diaries to make the demo samples match the population proportions.

The reality in PPM is that the samples are a lot bigger than the 30 response minimum Arbitron requires to print a demo in the big PPM markets. There is no planned PPM market where there is a danger of living with as few as 10 people as rumored. You have to keep in mind that with the PPM meter keepers holding the device for every day of every week for up to 18 months you get a lot more data than in a diary system.

Look at it on a monthly basis. Let's say in a big market you have 1000 diaries in an average month. In any given week you have an average of 250 people with a diary to fill out. Now let's say you have 500 people holding the meters, bet remember in any given week you have all those 500 meters gathering data. In the diary system you only had 250 people so the data collected is really on twice the sample and a lot more reliable.

The big issue here is the 18-34 sample. As long as we are using land line phones to reach them it's a losing battle. This group is mobile and ignoring land lines for cell phones at a rapid rate. Till Arbitron finds a way to reach them via Text, IM, Email or maybe even in person they will be challenged in these demos and have to weight them up a lot.

The other issue is costs. They are paying more to PPM households and in some cases paying a lot more to hold them in the sample. Arbitron hasn't really spelled out the compensation, but off the record comments from some insiders claim it's a lot more to insure a successful roll out. PPM is a different system than the diaries and comparing the two in sample is misleading.

We all know we need PPM to compete with the stronger metrics advertisers get from other media. No question PPM is a lot better and more accurate than the old recall diary system. Both sides (Arbitron and the stations) need to work together and listen to each other carefully.

Arbitron National Numbers - Rock is UP!!!

For the first time in around 18 months we are seeing Rock's shares improving in the national format breakouts from Arbitron. These are the numbers from the continuous markets (up to roughly #100) and the shares have improved from the all time lows of 7.3 (Fall 06) and 7.2 (Winter 07) to a 7.9 in the Spring 07 analysis. Active Rock was flat at a 1.9, AOR was up to a 1.9 (from a 1.6) and Classic Rock went 3.9 to 4.1 (Winter 07 to Spring 07.

For some reason Alternative has it's own format group with AAA and it was down 3.6 to 3.4 Winter to Spring. Actually we should lobby to have alternative join in on the rock subgroup here. Hispanic has a summary of all hispanic formats even though there are 11 varations. And HC has 5 different formats.

Hopefully we can expect to see these shares improve as more markets come on-line for PPM. Realize that only Philly was into PPM for these shares and we will have Houston to add in Summer and Fall. Next Winter and Spring will also showcase opportunities from New York and other markets rolling into PPM numbers and we should see rock shares improving. What would really push up the shares would be a decent return from the 18-44 Male population - it keep declining more and more with every month. Soon there will be NO ONE.

When you look at the growth of the new Clear Channel Rock station in Philly WRFF which has risen to nearly a million cume in just 3 months. With PPM we clearly see the results of a format flip RIGHT AWAY. Now Philly will likely be over 3 million combined cume for the rocks stations as WYSP converts from talk to Rock.

From 2 Rock stations to 4 in 1 summer in Philly.
Will this trend continue in PPM markets? Bet on it.

PPM or Diary - It's Time to Charge Up The Audience

#5 in our series on the realities of PPM and the diary wraps up the week with an overview that applies to both data collection systems.

No matter which system you are facing there is one constant that stands out - Charge up your audience. To get them to pay attention to your station and either recall it in the diary or to tune in more with the trusty PPM attached to their belts, or in their purse, you have to motivate them.

While the little nuances of the music mix, contests, positioning, clock placement and all the other little rules we've applied to programming may be important you have to 'move the meter.' In a world with new media innovations popping up nearly every week radio still has the resources to win by a mile. No media is more convenient, omni present and universally used as radio. PPM shows it's reach is a lot wider and stronger than we had thought from decades of diary studies. In some cases it's triple when we look at PPM cume.

The audience also listens to more stations to more stations - around 50% more than we saw in diary data. The reality of these numbers is they don't listen to all these stations as much as the one on the top of their list which drives down the TSL. Imagine you grew up an only child, mom and dad had all the time just for you - move over to a family with 5 kids and obviously mon and dad can't be at every ball game.

The way to win in either environment is to charge up your audience. We need to start making an impact with them and just lining up the most obvious good testing songs over and over, hard drived with a few cute sweepers in between making unbelievable claims probably isn't going to do it. They can do that, without the cute sweepers, on an Ipod.

Charging up your personalities, creating a real community social network with your P1 and P2 audience, looking for music that's exciting, fresh and surprising to your target audience, and being completely plugged in with the lifestyle of your target audience are the keys to winning. It takes a plan, imagination, a big effort, and talent. It also takes people to make it happen, most of the assets mentioned here don't come from a keyboard and an Internet connection.

As you get rolling into the Fall book step back for a few minutes and take a look - have you charged up your audience? We are leaning a lot from PPM that is telling us what actually happens on the other side of the speakers, not just what the audience recalls in a diary world. It is showing us that some of the realities from the diaries we thought were true about the audience are false.

PPM is also showing us that the diary is missing a lot of what is going on with the listener. While those in the diary world will have to live with the shortfalls. The hassle of changing the sample every week in a world where the database we use for building the sample is shrinking quickly from cell phones and non-participation. The audience is also hassled by the diary, writing things down in today's world in a log seams like commuting in a horse and buggy.

In the end it comes back to THE PRODUCT. Be compelling, exciting and entertaining - charge it up and it doesn't matter if it's meters or diaries you are a lot more likely to WIN. Get out from behind the computer and tweaking selector and focus on what really charges up the audience.

Are Our Clocks Kookie??

#4 - In our realities that apply to both PPM and Diary markets let's take a look at our clocks.

Back in the late 70s clocks began to evolve into a pattern that was supposed to extend TSL. A very skilled programmer of the day (Buzz Bennet I'm pretty sure) studied the whole Arbitron system of recording the listening and determined that because of the organization of the diary pages and the way they granted you a quarter hour by rounding up the listening that if you waited till :17 or :20 and that was properly recorded in the diary you would get credit for 2 quarter hours. Ever since in most hours outside of morning drive we typically sweep music from :55 all the way to :17 or :20. We also take the next break (if we have 3) around :37 to insure we get a full quarter hour in the 3rd segment of the hour and the last break is usually closer to :52 or :53 ideally to cover the last segment.

While the rule is right as you look at the diary layout and the rules for crediting that grants you a full 1/4 hour after 7 minutes 2 realities stand out:

• Not everyone is walking around with an atomic clock in front of them while entering the data. Do they really know the 'exact time' when they scribble it down?
• Most diaries are not filled out while actually listening - but are often filled out at the end of the day or maybe on Thursday morning for the whole week.

But, we sort of pushed those realities aside and nearly everyone adapted the formula. It probably did work to a certain extent as nearly everyone still breaks pretty close to this formula and we all may have extended TSL as you punched away you often find commercials on many stations in unison. The listeners probably think it's a govt. plot.

With PPM we have real data coming in and it's all controlled by an internal clock that's probably pretty accurate. When Arbitron breaks out he PPM data the listening is nearly equal in each of the quarter hours. From :53-:08 26% - :08-:23 24% - :23-38 25% and :38-:53 25%.

Did we gain anything from all these years of setting the clocks on the Buzz standard? I bet not. I bet some brave programmer will start breaking around :10 and be able to sweep either :20 or :55 and be the only station on the planet playing music there. Don't know that anyone in a PPM market has tried - but it could happen.

#3 - TSL Realities for PPM and Diaries

In part 3 of the PPM realities we can all learn from we take a look at TSL.

#3 – Extending TSL: While the TSL is lower in PPM and higher in the diary the challenge is always the same – get more! The longer they listen the higher the ratings go. The difference in PPM and Diary TSL mostly comes from the higher number of stations the sample is listening to in the PPM world. The average diary in Houston had 2.6 stations listed while the average PPM device recorded 4.4. In Philly diaries came in with 3.6 and PPMs recorded 6.6.

Capturing more stations on the PPM will lower the average for the number of quarter hours (or TSL) spent with each one. You also lose a lot of those super heavy diaries – you know the ones with 75 or more quarter hours. In fact the decay starts with PPM at around 25 quarter hours. PPM meters don’t rely on recall and don’t get lazy and they don’t wait till Thursday morning to jot down a few stations.

If you live in the diary world you will still have to live with those super heavy listening diaries and with sample weighting they can cause the number to bounce a lot. We’ve all seen a young male who logged tons of listening to a soft AC station push their numbers way up with weighting. The next book the numbers fall apart for the AC as they ‘didn’t win the statistical sample lottery again.’

What we can really learn here is that ‘real gains’ in TSL are what we need to focus on. They come from:

Not getting off track musically. You can call it ‘playing the hits’ but a boring turnover of the same 20 high testing songs can be very damaging to TSL. It’s more about living up to the expectations that the audience has and also leading them to new worlds within their musical expectations.

It’s more about a few minutes. How many times do we launch a big campaign for 20 in a row and think they will listen for the whole 90 minutes? No problem I’ll just sit here in the driveway for another ½ hour till you’re done with song 20. Or we set up a contest with a magic song they have to hear and expect them to listen all day and be the 55th caller. Setting realistic expectations is the better way. How about a billboard within a sweep of music that sets up a big song coming in a few minutes? Building more music campaigns more on ‘overall images’ (hour after hour WACD delivers the most Classic Rock in the valley – listen and prove it to your self) – instead of 10 in a row.

Talent really matters. Compelling personalities and creative imaging between the songs no only attracts cume it also holds them. But, watch how much you use the talent and imaging. We’ve made the mistakes of too much talk from the DJs in the past and we’ve also made the mistake of pounding the audience down with sweeper after sweeper which soon becomes seen as hype. Entertain them and don’t waste their time.

The measurement systems may be different, but the tools are the same. Like a great meal – don’t under cook it and don’t over cook it. Assemble with care.

At Work Listening - Even More Important!!!

In part 2 of our look at the realities from PPM that apply to everyone (PPM or Diary). In a recent FMQB article from Arbitron's Gary Marince he observes:

"In PPM, employed male listening is higher than female listening . . . employed males appear to have the most listening to radio. This helps explain why great Rock stations enjoy healthy ratings in PPM."

Even in the diary books we usually see the Classic Rock is #2 in At Work listening and all forms of rock do better than many expect at work. With the PPM Meter automatically recording listening, instead of relying on recall Gary feels we are seeing even more TSL from at work in PPM than we see in the diary- and he has all the data at his finger tips.

If you've ever looked at the diaries it's easy to see At Work listening with that entry at the top of the page and a squiggly line all the way down to 5p racking up 25-30 quarter hours in 1 day. It isn't quite as dramatic in the PPM as we all know that few sit by the radio all day. But, the reality is that Men work and they do listen to radio on the job. You can hassle with your MP3 or hunt for off beat Internet stations or fiddle with the satellite receiver at your desk - or just tune in the rock station we all know in the market and keep it on in the background. In the end terrestrial radio is still easier to use and more familiar.

How much effort are you putting into at work listening? 20 years ago when we began to really focus on at work there were telemarketing programs, big contests, donut remotes, and a fair amount of imaging spent on at work. Monitoring around as I travel - you don't hear as much of an effort anymore. In some markets mid-days is a daypart where we most often 'hard drive' it with the PD, VT talent or a production person doing the shift. There are some contests, but is that really the big draw? Is it more likely that the un-employed person, or very un-busy person at work - is hanging around waiting for the code word of the day?

The wiser choice might be to focus the show on the at work listener. Make sure the mid-day talent is live and interacting with the at work listener. Take a few calls, have a few features that stand out musically, but most of all make sure the talent has a vision of listener in an at work environment. The imaging should also take on an at work lean - look for drops that lean on the at work experience, copy that relates to at work moments and make sure to brand yourself as the at work station.

AC is really the last format that really works at getting at work listening. But, even there we see less effort than we saw 10-15 years ago when it was at its peak. In both the diary world (where you have that squiggly line) and in the PPM reality where you are more likely to have a longer TSL than the average 2:50 hours per week from at work listening and boost your TSL.

Big Market Rock Sign Ons - What's UP

This past week we've seen Clear Channel in Philly flip it's rumba/Hispanic station to somewhat library based Alternative stations Radio 104.5 and in San Francisco CBS dumps talk Free FM for a Classic Hits format with the old KFRC call letters. In Philly you can check out the station at http://www.radio1045.com/.

Why would these groups jump into rock based formats in Major markets? Just a few years ago Clear Channel was moving rock signals into Hispanic formats - is there a taco under your chair? And when CBS lost Howard most of the rock leaning stations quickly left the music behind for talk. We've all seen the trend of rock declining over the last 5-7 years in ratings so we have to wonder why?

PPM is the answer. Rock shares seem very likely to increase as we now see the initial data coming out from Houston and Philly. You can read more in my PPM review on the McVay web site here. I also just finished a piece for the site that digs much deeper into the potential for Rock formats in the PPM world read it here. This is going to be a BIG trend in the top 10 markets over the next 2 years and we could very well see a revival of rock formats in all the top 30 markets over the next 5 years. PPM different sample methods and systems compiled with the meter automatically recording listening instead of relying on recall and writing it down seems to be finding a lot more shares for Rock formats.

In Philly WMMR's shares are up 84%. Now we have to wonder - how far off is the diary system? We look these topics and more in the report the McVay Media site. Hope you can check it out.

Have a great weekend.

Arbitron Kills E Diary???? Also PPM & Rock

E Diary: Seeing the news today that Arbitron is killing the E Diary after only 2 months in the field is concerning. The Winter book was the first roll out for the E Diary where the sample was offered the option of filling out the diary on-line instead of using the paper and pencil version. You can see the news in this blog http://mcvaymediarocks.blogspot.com/2007_03_01_archive.html.

WHY? Arbitron claims that it hurt response rates and they caught it in time to put out extra diaries in Phase 3 of the Winter and save the sample return.

I hope Arbitron will be looking into why the E Diary hurt the return and try to find a way to do something to update the old fashioned diary method. Yes going to People Meters would end the diary altogether but remember that PPM is a very expensive option and will only be used in the top 20 markets as it is phased in over the next 2 years. Will PPM move beyond market 40 or 50 in the next 6 years? I would bet NOT.

4-5 years from now filling out a diary of your listening will start to look like going back to quill pens or stone tablets to most of the sample that is under 40 years old if we already haven't hit that point. There needs to be something - maybe a cell phone based web system option or perhaps a new procedure in the E Diary that doesn't hurt the return.

PPM: The system is now LIVE in Philly and will be in Houston in just a few months. The analysis of the early results in Philly and Houston shows that Rock radio format may be in for some good news when it comes to listening levels with PPM.

Measuring with the PPM vs Diaries does cut out some of the 'listening bias' we have seen from Hispanic and African American diary keepers. Many of these diaries has some 'heritage bias' in them with the diary filled out with lots of TSL to Hispanic and Urban stations. Now that PPM is in place and recording the listening with no bias or diary inflation we are seeing Rock stations moving up. You can see a full breakdown of the PPM system on the McVay Media web site

http://www.mcvaymedia.com/rock/07/ppm_programmers.pdf.

Too bad PPM will probably never be in more than the top 50 markets. We are creating a dual platform ratings system that will hurt the lower ranked markets as their data will soon look so outdated that many buyers will just focus on the big markets and leave them for dead.

Fall 06 Rock Ratings Review and PPM?

You can review our analysis of the Fall Arbitron ratings summary for Rock Formats on the McVay Media website - http://www.mcvaymedia.com/rock/07/Fall_06_Rock_Ratings_Summary.pdf



It's not a pretty picture and while all of us in the rock radio world do have some valid reasons and excuses it's time for action. See the full picture for yourself.












I am also preparing a review of the new People Meter system that Arbitron has now certified and will be implementing throughout the next year in a number of the larger (mostly top 10) markets. After attending the on-line Arbitron sessions it's obvious that PPM will have many complex and far reaching changes that will affect all of us even if your market never gets the service!!! As soon as we get that article posted on the McVay Media site please read it for your own career's sake.