2014 Part 2

Part 2 of 3 on some observations the year ahead in radio focus on Metrics and Research.

Research - Some may say that we got very 'research happy' in the 90s and the early years of the new century.   Many stations and clusters had regular perceptual studies and music tests as a regular part of the budget with studies every hear.  

Now with the PPM - Media Monitors racking up scoring for the music in many markets or stations in many non PPM markets just living off the airplay data in Mediabase or BDS.   The recession also trimmed back many research budgets and this could be a year when we see research start to return to our brands and products.

PPM based 'research' is also focused on 'real time' data overlaying the minute by minute ratings with the music and content we suddenly had a picture of what was really going on.  The first reaction to this instant CRT-X-Ray of the audience has been real defensive.  Many have stripped the stations trying to stop tune out at any costs.  Are we losing the foundations of our brands, killing local engagement, stifling personality, and becoming boring by stripping down?  Are these the precise elements we need to make an impact with an audience filled up with media choices that just play songs?  Are these moves doing way more longer term damage than good to our brands?  It might be better to work more on raising the bar on personality, content, engagement, and entertainment and find a way to do it without wasting lots of time.  

The news is obvious that any research is going to have to come back with new technology and taking advantage of all the ways our audience now communicates.   Reaching for a random sample of numbers from the phone book isn't going to tell us anything about 'today's audience.'  Most of them under 45 don't have land lines and many don't use their phones for talking at all.  You need to reach them through their phone, tablets and laptops with studies that are quick, fun and sharp looking.  We will also need to be able to use social media to gather sample and lure them.

The sample itself has also changed.  The idea of a random sample has moved more to a managed panel of people in the PPM world and don't be surprised to see Nielsen/Arbitron move to more managed panel samples outside of the top 50 markets.  A lot of Nielsen's work in other projects in radio, retail and other industries has moved more to managed panels - it's a lot less expensive.

We also have lots of opportunities for 'quick research' with our social media fan bases and listener databases.  The key is developing an overall strategy and plan here - much of what we do is very random right now.  It seems like we have lots of pieces of research all scattered around the desk - how we build a real strategy with the pieces is a real challenge to every programmer.

When you look at the key ingredients in today's brands it's all about knowing what the customer is consuming and trying to know what they want.   Netflix gathers tons of data and categorizes every show to try and keep ahead of what the audience is looking for.  Amazon breaks down every product on who bought it and then pulls out the meta-data and tries to forecast your next order.  Really we don't have much 'meta-data' to work with.   Or do we really have some data and some potential to gather data on our brands and music that we could build into a stronger strategy?

Metrics-Ratings:  The last post on the year ahead for Nielsen/Arbitron in this blog really covers some of this territory.  Still when you look ahead for 2014 the changes ahead for the Ratings will impact us all a lot.  Really when you look at Arbitron it was often rather slow moving.   It took decades to get out of the 'printed book' world and much of the 'software' to break out the numbers came from outside sources that Arbitron eventually bought.   The sample struggled to reach younger audiences and it still clings to the antique pen and paper/recall data collection system with the diary for around 75% of the markets.

How will all this change as Nielsen gets more comfortable in the 'audio' world?  Will we have stronger samples in all markets?  Will they be more based on managed panels than random samples?  Will we begin to move away from being the 25-54 and 35+ media with ratings that actually capture younger cells?  Will we team up with Nielsen and start to do more custom breakouts of the data and quit leaning so much on 25-54 ranks? Will the diary finally be replaced with real time data gathering in other 75% of the markets?

There is a lot going on with the research and ratings fronts as we head into 2014.  In many ways the real keys to our success in the future lies in learning a lot more about an audience that is evolving and changing at an ever increasing rate of speed.  As our communication systems speed up so does the change they produce.

Clearly in 2014 we NEED to start building a lot more of a strategy and evolve our research.  We've cut back on this area over the last 10 years and even before that our systems and research methods were antiquated in sample, data gathering, and we kept looking at the same data over and over.  

Happy 2014

Happy New Year!!  Here at the start of the 2014 it looks like there is a lot to look forward to in Radio.  The Economy is improving and we still have a strong media with a great reach.   Yes our loyalty is challenged as more and more options for music, news and entertainment pop up everywhere but we are clearly in the game.    

So what can we look forward to in 2014?  Let's start with a look at music:

Music - 2014 looks like it could be a year of SURPRISES.

Pop: 2013 saw 3 big divas return with Lady Gaga, Katy Perry and Beyonce.   Plus we also had lots from the last group of divas - J-Lo, Mariah, and Britney, trying -- but not in peak form.  Rihanna continued to be a presence as she gears up for a 2014 release - this could be a big year for her.  Taylor Swift will also be releasing in 2014 but it looks like there could be room for a new pop-diva to emerge over the Summer.  Justin Timberlake was also a big presence in 2013, which will likely fade in 2014 as the best from his releases has already hit.   Will Maroon 5 be able to pull in another big round of huge pop songs?   Will Bruno Mars pull in a bigger presence?  Then there's Miley and Bieber boy - is it about 'them' or their music.  While there are plenty of big stars here you can sense the timing is there for some big new faces to emerge.

The Alt - Indie Rock movement seemed to have a healthy presence in the overall music stages throughout 2013.  It started the year with Imagine Dragons, Lumineers, Monsters and Men, and Fun.  Then we witnessed Capitol Cities and Lorde finish off the year strong.  Will this movement pull in some fresh faces for 2014?  Will we see follow up power from some of the artists here or are they one hit wonders?

Rock - Not much going on here, but will 2014 pull in a big surprise act that rocks the house?  The potential is there for a group with some 'indie cred' to break through here with the right look and feel.

Country - While Pop music still has a lot of the music spotlight at center stage Country keeps building more and more younger stars.  It seems like we get 2 or 3 fresh faces every year that seem to emerge and grab the spotlight. There is no reason for this to change in 2014.  Nashville has built a great team that works well with Radio, covers TV well and has kept up with all the social media tricks.  Their model is also not built solely on selling CDs --  touring, endorsements, videos, fan engagement, and celebrity all play big roles and Nashville seems to execute all these roles consistently.

Rap - Hip Hop - It seems like we always have new faces here to watch - but the need to push the edge all the time often limits the reach here.   The movement of the last 4-5 years of more and more Hip Hop integration into pop music seems destined to continue - it's become too valuable and important.  But at the same time there seems to be an authentic underground that closes itself off.

Dance - It seemed like there were clear signs of a breakthrough for Dance music, but it seemed flatten out as 2013 rolled on.

One trend to keep an eye on is 'music with a message.'  Just go back and look at Blurred Lines, Royals, and many other big hits that had a lot of lyric power in them.

A year to keep your eyes and ears open you can almost smell a change or a surprise in the 'music weather' brewing.

There are lots of other topics to look at for 2014.   Over the next week let's take a look at 4 other areas that could be important 2014 areas.  Happy New Year!!!!!!!

A Nielsen Audio Wish List

One of the biggest 'change events' for our whole industry in 2013 was Nielsen buying Arbitron.   Nothing hits more at the heart of our world than the ratings and having it switch to Nielsen and actually start the morphing into a central measurement service that covers many different media is destined to have a big impact.   

It's also Christmas time so let's combine these 2 topics and have a seat on Jolly Ole Nick Nielsen's lap and see what he can fit under the tree.  

Here's my list Nick Nielsen:  

1. Sample Size - Great move to improve the sample sizes in the PPM markets and especially in the 30-50 ranked markets where it was very weak.  But let's not stop there.  The smaller markets that are still on diaries still need to have a much stronger sample.  There is so much weighting going on in these markets it's very hard to trust the data - especially in the younger all important Millennial age cells. Nick we've been very good broadcasters outside of the top 50 markets serving our communities and in many markets you can sell to someone other than the big 3 giving you some diversity in your client base. 
2. The Diary - Let's face it the diary is completely useless technology to collect data with.  With most of the population under 40 this is sort of like bring out a quill and a bottle of ink.  We can see it all the time with the lack of response from the under 40 year olds and also we have to wonder - 'are the ones who will cooperate with this antique data collection system' representative of the general population or are they a very tight sub cell?  Perhaps they are Amish? With today's new smart phones there are many more ways to collect data that is way more accurate - similar to how the PPM data works.  Also consider the huge costs of processing all this paper, postage and recruiting a fresh sample every week.  
3.  The Demos - We drew up the 25-54 standard back in the 70s and 80s when the baby boomers were all represented in this broad cell.  It became the standard for using radio, but now it's time to move on and realize that generations evolve and age and we need a system and a standard that is not pegged on what was the demo profile of 30 years ago.  Nielsen is the one with the data and the one who stands in the middle of the buyers of our media and our media builder/seller side.  Education, some innovation, and look at the design of the software and the reports.  There are ways for Nielsen to start a new revolution here and give radio a chance to show that it can impact many important generations - not just one.  
4. Costs - Radio operators bare the brunt of the costs and in the future it looks like our sample will be providing data for a number of media operators with Nielsen offering lots of sellers and buyers data based on the sample they draw for 'audio' measurement.  Their buying pool will increase, that should mean that Radio costs can come down.   

Many of us have some fears here.  Will Radio get lost in a sea of competitors that all show up in some form of combined media standard?  Will our needs in gathering data take a back seat so mobile media, pure play streamers, video services, Social Media sites and web portals all grow at our expense when a 'standard' is set?  But, in the end it's time to give the buyers the data they need and do our best to make 'Audio' broadcasting the star of the show.  

Surely you can add to the list.   So have a seat on Nick Nielsen's knee and have a great holiday.   

Endorsements On A Whole New Level!!

Next time you or one of your personalities is approached for an endorsement don't just take the product or service and just ramble on - go the extra mile.   The new Ron Burgundy campaign for the new Durango should serve as some inspiration.  

Ron goes all out and completely in character for this assignment.  He also does over 65 versions of the campaign with many destined for Social Media and You Tube exclusive placement.  The spots also serve as a great promo for what will likely be The Movie Of The Year in December.  Will goes the extra mile and these full on character spots get your attention.

We are seeing more clients jump into endorsements and live spots.  It may sound like a simple - easy concept but to make them really work you have to get creative.  Next time you set out to build an endorsement make sure your creative mojo is turned up all the way.  

How Much To Post on Facebook??

As we work with Facebook we often end up in a discussion on how much should we post?  We often see articles by Facebook gurus claiming that we should wait 3 hours between posts.  This stems from the metric that the average life of a post to gathering likes, comments and shares is around 3 hours.  Frequency of posts is also an etiquette consideration.  Just like a person who 'talks too much' in a conversation you don't want to come off as dominating in the relationship with the 'friends/fans.'  You also have to ride the balance of selling and building your brand on Facebook and engaging the audience without coming off with too much 'hype.'

Considering the etiquette,  hype factor and the post life there is also another huge factor that we have to consider that that's the traffic level.  The average user posts around 1.1 times a day or 36 times a month.  So if you have 500 friends and maybe 20 fan pages you end up with 500-600 posts a day.   That's  probably around 30 posts an hour or one very 2 minutes.  Take the peak hours from 7a-10p and you are way above 30 per hour.

I have around 400 people on my personal page and I checked the posts on my news feed in mid-day and there were over 75 posts that were around an hour old.   Add 8-10 'sponsored posts' in the feed and then another 20-30 posts that were older (but still seeing enough action in likes, comments, shares and views to push themselves back into the feed) and you can see that even in 1 hour you can find your post is 1 of 100.  

Also consider that if you check in on Facebook 6 times a day - every 3 hours your news feed could have 250 to 300 posts on it.  Given those facts it would see that only posting every 3 hours is probably not enough for your brand or station to really have any impact unless your posts are all super engaging.

Think about like this.  Let's say you have around 250 commercials on your station from 6a-7p would you expect a client who only runs 1 commercial a day to have any impact with their message?  Probably not - no one on your sales team would suggest such an schedule because it won't produce any impact.  The same frequency issues are there in Facebook posts also.

Facebook is getting more crowded every day.  Maybe not with more users but with all the revenue activity on it now that there are stockholders to keep happy there is a lot more on any news feed than there was a few years ago.  In the end if you want to have an impact for your brand or personality you have to engage more to keep up.

Of course you have to balance it out.  Having a post every hour that 'another 20 minute music marathon is starting now' is a waste and probably won't make news feed anyway, but just getting in 4 posts from 6a-8p will only work if all those posts are 'killers.'   You have to have both - a healthy quantity of posts and also have very engaging posts that catch the eyes and interaction with your fans.     

The Demos They Are A Changing

In the reports from the NAB show an interesting topic popped up from large agency director Sumeet Kanwar at OMD who notes that 'his media buyers spend millions with radio, but when it comes to measurement they are not getting what they need.'   Sumeet when on to elaborate that 'there is a need to develop more finite demographics, rather than expecting clients to buy a demo like Women 18-49,'

Sumeet couldn't be more correct.  For the last 35 years we have really lived mostly in one demo - 25-54 adults.  Yes, the last 15 years or so we have seen a rise in 18-49 but face it - we mostly celebrate the 25-54 numbers.  For 35 years we've had the same perspective on the audience.  When we started to build this demo it was the early 80s and the Baby Boomers (1945-65) were in the core of this demo for most of the decade.  The first Boomers turned 30 in 1975 and 20 years later in 1995 the last of the Boomers turned 30.

Now the Boomers are all over 50.  In just a few years all the Boomers will be over 55 and out of the demo completely.  This demo became THE important demographic because it was centered around the Boomers who were the largest demo group in the population and marketing to them as they built their lives and spent their dollars has no doubt built the economy we have today.   But, they have earned their highest incomes and spent at their highest levels.   It's a new reality and we've sat in one chair looking out the same window for 35 years.  Recently the 18-49 Demo has seen more 'action' in radio but even there this is a very wide group of people with very different life needs and a lot of the 18-49 demo overlaps with 25-54.

Sumeet is right - it's time for a new view.   So how should we divide up the Demographic Pie today?  

The chart shows the 2010 Census populations by 5 year spans and I outlined the Boomers, Gen X and Millennial generations as they sit for 2014, and noted the updated ages.  

For marketers right now these are 3 pretty different generations.  They are all in different stages in their lives and offer many different challenges to marketing.   The Boomers are now 55+ and in a very mature consumer state.  Gen X is in their peak earning years and also their peak spending years with family expenses mounting up.  The new Millennial Generation are nearly all out of high school on the young end and over half of them are approaching 30 years old.  

We could divide it up in many ways:

• Make it a 3 way world - 50+, 30+ and 12-30 -  You would be pretty close to lining up with the 'stages of maturity' of the whole population and also fairly close to the current Boomer/GenX/Millennial alignment.   This would be a full change - we'd really be packaging the demos not by their population but more on their age and the consumer needs surrounding that stage of their maturity.  
• Go for 2 broad groups that are tighter than what we have now and with a lot less overlap.   Here you would have 20-44 and 45-70 spread.  You are either looking at younger and older targets for your product.  
• Set up our age data breakouts with Arbitron so we have combos of 5 year spans.  You can pick 3+ combos and tailor the full presentation to the client.   Build a 25-40 demo for products that are looking for new families with young kids in them.   Build an 20-35 breakout for products aimed at younger singles or just married.  Build 50-65 group for empty nest couples.   

Sumeet is 'spot on' in pointing out the need here and this is going to take a full head on effort.  Not only do we have to figure out new ways to divide up a moving target as the demos grow and age, but we also need to completely change a lot of our culture and radio product structure.   Here's a starting list of 'things to do' to accomplish the task: 

1. Getting Arbitron to develop new breakout demos and systems in all the software, 
2. Teaching the sales teams to present a whole new package with either completely different demos or specific targets customized for the client's target - not our 25-54 break out. 
3. Programming will need to adjust it's targeting also.   What is the most valuable target to dominate?  It's a whole new question and maybe one that changes all the time.

For sure we are all going to need to be a lot more in tune with product target demographics, the generations and their characteristics within the population and be ready to overhaul our key demo rank and CPM business model.   

Perhaps the NAB should be taking the lead here and take Sumeet's observations to the planning table.  

Jimmy Kimmel Teaches Us All How To Twerk Social Media.

Jimmy Kimmel's recent exploit with the Epic Twerk Fail gives us all some great lessons in the new world of Social Media.   No doubt you saw the video all over your Facebook page, on news casts, in talk shows, or just roaming the office on someone's computer.  The 30 second video of a girl twerking and falling backwards on a table with a candle and her pants catching of fire spread like wild fire.  It's over 11 million views in just a week and then Jimmy reveals he did the video as a hoax with a stunt woman and that reveal is heading to 10 million views.  

Here are some observations and lessons that Jimmy's prank can teach us:

Authentic Wins - You can't hype it.  Look at all the 'authentic looking' touches here.  It starts with the video itself looking as if it was shot on a phone.  Even the 'acting' here is carefully executed to make it look 'not professional.'  The room itself is set up with cheap furniture and a no frills look.   The key here is that the video looks real.

Timing It: The other key here is how Jimmy deals with the video.   He sets the trap carefully by just posting the video and then he waits till it starts to grow.  He carefully waits to show it on his show till it has already started to grow on Social Media and media programming.  How many Morning Shows posted this video on their web sites and Social Media pages?  Too many to count.  Jimmy sits and watches it grow and then he reveals the hoax and takes over the bit.  

Hitting A Hot Topic:  This bit wouldn't have grown much with out Miley's wild twerking on the MTV Awards show.  Jimmy's other key here was jumping on something that everyone was already talking about.

Let Social Media Do the Work:  If you have something that is 'hot' enough you can see the power of Social Media here.  Just remember you can't HYPE it.  Social Media will do the work IF you carefully set the stage.  

So what does Jimmy really get from this bit?  So what, he racks up 10 million views on some video.   Actually Jimmy gains a lot from this bit.  Next year we'll be watching an 'epic battle' on the nightly talk shows.  Leno exits again and now we have 2 newer players Fallon vs Kimmel.   Kimmel is on ABC and still finding an audience - this is where Nightline was just a year ago.  NBC's Tonight show has always won this slot - just ask Letterman.  Fallon is building up solid props and looks ready to hit it big on the Tonight Show.
Kimmel needs to grab the spotlight now - while he is the only 'new world' show in the time slot.

When you look at the new breed of show that Fallon and Kimmel are crafting they are clearly aiming at an audience that lives in social media and has never known a world without the web.  The Jimmies play constantly on Social Media.  They tweet all the time, play games with the audience on social media and use material that comes right from Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and if some new site develops they will pounce on it.  

Meanwhile Letterman and Leno only put their toe in the Social Media pool.

So what does this mean to your station and your personalities?   Actually a lot.  There is a lot to learn from in how Kimmel built the bit and used Social Media here.   The lessons are really pretty obvious.  Perhaps the real area we should consider here is - 'are we living in the Letterman/Leno world or the world of the Jimmy's.'  Are we diving into the audience's pool or just hanging out around it?

A Big Picture Look at Radio Brands and Facebook

Facebook will be 10 years old early next year.   It's almost hard to imagine a product marketing without the familiar blue square "F" logo and the Blue Bird in it.  Social Media has clearly become an integral part of the fabric of the world.  In the U.S. around 60% of the 130 million people living here use it (most estimates are around 180 million U.S. users now in a population of  315 million).

So how are radio brands doing in reaching and working with a media that's clearly become integral to any brand out there.   Let's take a BIG PICTURE look.  We'll use the Page Rankings from Quintly.com where you can pull out various categories of Fan Pages and see how they stack up.

If we start with the whole world and look at the stats:

Eminem with 75 million is at the top (if you take out You Tube and Facebook itself) and it goes from there to more artists like Rihanna, Michael Jackson, Lady GaGa, Justin Bieber, Katy Perry and Linkin Park are all above 55 million.  Some big brands like Coke, Red Bull and Disney are in the top 50 with more than 40 million.

There are lots of TV shows, some movies, a couple of sports stars (soccer) and some video game sites.  It's a very interesting list that's updated by the minute, you can visit it here.

Now let's take a big picture look at the Radio Station segment of all these pages:

The On-Line radio brands I Heart at 6 million and Pandora at 5.6 million. After that we have lots of radio brands from Europe and other spots in the world.   France and Italy have brands here with some pretty strong numbers given that both countries are around 60 million.

You can play with the ranks here.

You have to go all the way to #38 in the ranks to find Z100 with around a 1/4 of a million fans.  KISS in Los Angeles, BLS in NYC, WILD in SF, KISW Seattle, Movin Seattle, KUBE Seattle and WXPN Philly all manage to crack the top 120 and have 50,000 to 250,000 fans.

When you stand back and see the other countries and radio brands there are some interesting stories.  Hungry only has 6 million people yet the have a radio brand in the top 100.  Toronto has 3 stations in the top 120 - more than NYC?

When you stand back and look at our performance on the BIG PICTURE it's really a bit concerning.   If we took a look at the Twitter numbers the picture wouldn't even be close to the Facebook showing.  Social Media is huge interaction vehicle.  Our brands will never be strong in the digital new world we are trying to build a presence in without Social Media.   We have plenty of opportunity to grow here.

While some of the growth comes from building the message on-air to your cume a lot more of it comes from creating engaging content.  Being the 10th one to post those pics of Miley Twerking probably isn't going to spread the word.   You also have to be consistent - posting randomly when the mood hits is also a way to fall off the News Feed.

Do you have a real strategy and plan for Social Media?  We are still novices, but even in elementary school there is a plan and a strategy.