The Last 8 Years In Rock Listening Trends

Last week we took a look at the last 8 years of 12+ listening trends from Arbitron's 2010 Radio Today summary which runs through 2009.  Early next year we'll see the report that includes 2010 and the story for Rock formats will likely be trending down.

Over the 90s rock formats splintered into 5 groups - more than any other broad format group (AC, Country, Oldies, N/T, CHR, and Urban).  When we look at each individual group the graph takes some interesting turns:

The total shares for all of rock were fairly strong in 2003 and 2004 at just over a 13 share.  2005 to 2007 you can see a 10% dip down to the mid 11 share range and a recovery to the 2009 12.5 share in 2009.  Looking at the individual styles of rock:

Classic Rock - The leader with a pretty steady run ranging from a low of 4.5 in 2007 to the current high of 5.0.

Active Rock has also seen a pretty steady run with some pretty low shares hovering just below a 2 share in 2003 and 2004 and mounting a steady gain with peak years in 2008 and 2009.  

Alternative has been the losing format starting out with a 3 share and sinking to the 2 share range for the last 3 years.

AOR is still listed here but many of these stations play mostly Classic Rock and many have classified themselves as CR for sales purposes

AAA has a limited penetration in many markets hanging at the .9 share range till 2007 when it began to climb to it's current 1.2 share.  

In many ways this graph is looking more at history than current reality.

Classic Rock has enjoyed many gains from the bigger markets adopting PPM as well as an aging overall terrestrial audience during this period.  CR is a solid performer in the PPM system with familiar music, good at work penetration and many stations have a long standing brand.

Active Rock rose up in the last 3 years mostly on the back of a solid group of middle ground newer rock artists.  Nickleback, 3 Days Grace, Theory of a Deadman, Shinedown, and others built a sound that was aggressive, but still had the hooks to break over to CHR (in many casts), become big concert draws, and we even saw pop worlds like American Idol begin to look a bit more at performers with Rock backgrounds.

For the most part Active Rock held it's line and did not work with the more pop world rock from American Idol and as the newness of the middle ground bands began to wain it has moved more into a world that is clearly harder and more aggressive.   Godsmack, Disturbed, and other harder edge bands now lead the way in the format  This is music that will only show up on Active Rock and maybe some Alternative stations.  Over 2009 and 2010 this harder edge has taken over.  

In Alternative the spotlight on the Active Rock bands drew much of their attention or if they held back it cost them 18-40 male shares.  But, as the 2010 and 2011 shares emerge look for Alternative to start to really shine.  Alternative has started to sort out the indie rock world and we've seen a lot of artists emerge to gain the national spotlight.   Neon Trees, Phoenix, White Stripes, Kings of Leon, Black Keys, Mumford and Sons and more are starting out exclusively on Alternative and now crossing over to CHR and the national attention that will bring in more Alternative fans.  

Clearly we hit a fork in the road for Active Rock and Alternative in 2009 and 2010.  Active retreated into a much harder rock arena while Alternative seemed to go the other way.   If you look at the charts for both formats there was a lot more crossover from 2007 to 2008 than there is today.

The challenge in some markets where there really isn't an Alternative station on the dial is rather obvious.  There are also cases where the Active Rock or more current leaning AOR station could embrace some of the Alternative music?  If you are an uncontested Active Rock or AOR that does play currents -- do you bend and take on the bigger Alt titles?  It's a very tough call.  The harder rockers are very vocal and will broadcast their attitude clearly if you step out too far.  Will these formats and programmers end up being trapped by their core audience into a route that keeps them away from the spotlight music in rock?

While we may not see these trends in the graphs from the rock format listening trends they are there in all the other music popularity measures we have (sales, downloads, concerts, street buzz and crossover).  This will be a big challenge for 2011.  We already see a lot more new music activity in the Alternative camps than we see in Active Rock.  And there are lots of Alternative titles that many Active Rock programmers have hardly heard of rising in the charts.

There is also changes that will come about as the Millennials (currently 15-30 years old) evolve and become the biggest generation of potential radio listeners in the next couple of years.  You can read more about that in the Millennial series we did a few weeks back - Part 1 - Part 2 - Part 3 - Part 4 - Part 5.  Big questions to ponder in Rock as we head into 2011.

Format Shares from Arbitron's Radio Today 2010 Report

When you take a look at the overall 12 plus shares for Rock formats over the last 7 years (2003-2009) and compare it to the major format groups (not including religious or Hispanic) it's a pretty interesting story.  Overall it's fairly consistent with a dip in 2005-2007 and a pretty decent recovery in 2008 and 2009.  

Of course we can see News formats ramping up for the 2008 election and holding a lot of that share into 2009.   Country has been pretty steady around a 13 share and rising recently with the younger country artists shining.  AC has surged recently and the rise of Hot AC (which may include Adult/Pop CHR) as well as the surge from the PPM stations and Christmas music has impacted this format over the last 7 years.  Rock is pretty steady with a dip from 2005 to 2007, we will dive into these numbers next week with more details

CHR is starting to show the spike we all know will grow in 2010 with all the big pop acts dominating the charts and sales right now.   Oldies is also growing, but much of this is a shift from the old oldies formats to Classic Hits and Adult Hits.  Urban shows pretty steady numbers here - note that the Rhy/CHR shares are included in the CHR graph.

I suspect we will see some changes as the 2010 national format shares come out.  CHR will likely be hotter, Country could also gain, and News will grow with the mid-term election causing a stir.  Rock will probably see a downtrend and we'll explore some of the reasons in the next blog.

When Do They Listen?

This question pops up a lot for scheduling features, laying out contests, and for show prep (when to run that great bit or content).  Arbitron has resumed their Radio Today report and this graph shows clearly where the 12 plus audience is listening.

Now this data is based on both diary and PPM data and only includes the markets that had PPM for the Fall 09 report.  We've had a number of PPM markets added over 2010 and there are differences in the listening patterns when we compare PPM and Diary results, but this graph does give you a good picture of where the important hours and dayparts are.    

Later in the week we'll take a deeper look at the Radio Today report from 2009 and dive into the individual formats.  So check back!!

Phones - Research and the Elections

As we wade through the endless stream of political spots on every media with all their accusations there is another story behind this fall election in the U.S. that could be a major factor.  The telephone based polls that candidates and the media has used to track the public since the 40s could end up being very mis-leading.

Nearly every analysis of the polls shows a Republican leaning wave moving the House and maybe even the Senate to a Republican lean.  But, those polls are mostly done on by calling land line households since reaching out to cell phone users for research is costly and difficult. The national polls are more likely to use cell phone households, but on the local and state level it's still pretty costly and not used that much.  Much of the polling data being analyzed for this mid-term election could be off the mark.

In radio we know the cell phone only households and their effect on research.  For years we've struggled with incomplete data in the under 40 age cells and watched our samples decay.  Arbitron and Nielsen have both retooled their sample systems and now do a better job including cell phone households.  Still, we struggle with not enough cell phone sample, but at least we have a little more accuracy.

The Pew Center has reviewed the cell phone only households for the political polls and released the following data:

You can see that the Cell Phone only households are more likely to lean Democratic changing the pools by around 2 percent.   When you factor in that most research has a 3-5% variance and then add the 2% Democratic lean many of the Republican margins could suddenly be a lot closer than expected.

Could we see an election here where polling is suddenly in question?  Much like the famous Dewey - Truman election in the late 40s where polling predicted Dewey would win.  Back then phones were not in all households and when the non-phone households voted the polls were suddenly skewed.

We have relied on phone based research for nearly all our data on the audience over the years.  This fall we may see in a big way that the phone is flawed.  Cell phones, VOIP, Skype and so many other ways of personal communication have made the land line a thing of the past.  We - and the politicians - can't rely on it anymore for data on the audience.

Summary on Millennials

In our series in Millennials (or Generation Y) we have to realize the impact this generation will have over the next 10-20 years as they all hit the 25-54 demo.  This generation is larger than the Boomers and look at the impact that generation had from the late 60s through the mid-90s.  The Boomers were a lot bigger than the 'silent generation' or the World War II babies so their impact was magnified.  But, the Millennials are still a bigger group and they also have a revolutionary quality like the Boomers.

Boomers saw mass communication and world travel become common place.   Television, Radio, Telephones, Interstate roadways and jet travel made the whole world accessible.  Boomers also went to college more and had higher levels of education.

When you look at the Millennials they have a huge revolution in communication that dwarfs the old analog media.  They can  travel the world on their laptops, communicate with anyone they want in a variety of ways from email to text to voice to video to chats to social media.  The combination of their population size and the huge leap in communication technology is already pushing us into a revolution moving at the speed of Moore's Law (the speed of computer processing doubles every 2 years). They are also well educated with high levels of post High School activity.

Radio can't keep brushing this generation aside.  If you worked on FM radio in the late 70s and early 80s you probably got a preview of the times we are in now.   In the mid 70s the peak of the Boomer generation was in their early 20s and just starting to fill up the 25-34 demo.  Most marketers considered this generation long hair youth at the time and really not much of a market outside of fashion, music, beer, electronic equip and maybe cheap cars.

Through the 80s the Boomers completely overtook the 25-54 demo and turned marketing upside down.  I can remember being at a rock station and watching agency after agency turn us down even though we were starting to climb up the top 3 in 25-54 adults.  We knew it was only a matter of time till they would have to look at our audience - no matter how different they may have been.

Right now the oldest Mellinnials are turning 30 - in 5 years they will enter the 35-44 demo and completely take over 18 to 34s.  And they will be the biggest generation we've seen yet in the U.S.  The challenge we face is getting them to dial into our media and brands.  We all can see the vehicles, but getting them started seems to elude us.  It can't anymore.

Tips For Reaching Millennials

Since we are on a roll with celebrating the news that the Millennial Generation or Gen Y will pass the Boomers in  population figures when the Census is published in the U.S. in a few months I ran across an article by Thomas Pardee in Ad Age.   Mr. Pardee is one of Ad Age's regular writers and you can read his analysis of the generation here. 

The real key to the article is his wrap up

5 tips for marketing to millennials

Be fast
For millennials, there's nothing worth saying that can't be said in 140 characters or less. It's not that they can't handle long-form pitches, they just know you can do better. So do better.

Be clever
As Nick Shore, head of research for MTV, said, "Smart and funny is the new rock 'n' roll." Millennials are set to be the most-educated generation on record, with the largest social-media platform (Facebook) having been famously born on a college campus. "With their roots in college culture, it's no wonder eloquence and timing are more prized than ever for this generation. Err on the side of overestimating the millennial -- as the Old Spice campaign shows -- and sometimes they'll surprise you.

Be transparent
Millennials may be arrogant and entitled, but they're not stupid, and they know media exists to sell them things. So rather than pretending your branded beverage isn't conspicuously placed in a TV character's hand to entice them, look for new ways to make it funny. It will ring true with them, and they'll appreciate the honesty. (Need a cue? Look no further than the deliciously self-referential "30 Rock.")

Don't "technologize" everything
By their own definition, millennials are in part defined by their use of and reliance on technology. But marketers should resist the urge to attempt to "speak their language" -- Gen Yers can smell those ploys a mile away. Remember, millennials are digital natives -- they don't use technology; they live it, and they do so subconsciously.

Give them a reason to talk about you
Millennials don't like ads, but they don't mind marketing that's non-invasive, non-interruptive and that adds something to their experience, either online or off. Whether it's a fun and timely iPhone app, a targeted high-profile event or a personalized viral-video campaign, if you want your message to resonate with millennials, give them something to talk about. And if we know the first thing about millennials, talk they will.

Gen Y/Millennials - A Few Key Facts

 The last few blogs (below) have noted the size of the Gen Y/Millennials, which are now a bigger generation than the Boomers, and Radio Programmings struggle to reach this emerging force.   If we want to reach them we probably need to learn a lot more about them.  While there are plenty of articles in Ad Age and other sites on their consumer behavior one of the more in depth pieces on them came from the Pew Research Center in February 2010. Read the Pew Study here.

The Pew Study covers a lot of interesting traits for this generation in comparison to Gen X, Boomers, and the Silent Generation but a lot of the facts track their religious, political and family values sides.  While they are important traits they probably don't help us programmers get a handle on their entertainment desires.   

I pulled a few of charts that bring out some broad areas we may learn from: 

• They are more diverse:  

• They are less likely to be Married than the other generations in the 20s:

• What do THEY think makes them unique?:

This is a very interesting comparison.  While we would expect that they would have Technology Use at the top and in greater numbers than Gen X the #2 unique trait is Music Pop Culture.  None of the other generations cite this trait.  Radio could play a HUGE role if we chose to dive in with them.   

• And Just For FUN - How many of them have Tattoos:

There is a lot more to learn from the study.  For the most part they are more liberal and actually more family oriented in their values than their marriage stats would indicate - guess they are just being fussy with partners and that's probably due many of them coming from split households.

They are an interesting group that is clearly plugged into the new media and technology as a full fabric of their lives.  Their ability to communicate is very strong in their technology usage.  Communication is key to nearly all generations.   For the Boomers the 4 big communication factors were - Television, Telephones becoming commonplace in the 50s, the advent of world air travel, and radio providing a fairly common music backdrop.

Obviously radio will need to weave itself into their tech world and the new tools of communication.  But, we also have to learn who are are communicating with.    We have a ways to go here.

Edison Research's Youth Study 2010

The crack team at Edison Research just released a great study of 12-24s at the NAB and online (read it here).

The study showcases the differences from 2000 to 2010 in the younger audience on a number of fronts.  We can see that they still have an interest in radio, but the wealth of new media and the smart phone world are more and more appealing to our potential future audience every day.  It's killing a lot of TSL for terrestrial radio and you can also see that the lack of interest our industry seems to have for this younger audience is damaging the future.

In the last post on this blog we broke down the population numbers that will likely become fact when the census hits in a few months.  The 15-30 year old age group will be bigger than the boomers we've relied on for audience and revenue for 30 years will be a fading demo.

While the study points out a number of great suggestions on addressing the 12-24 side of the younger demo we also need to look at the 22-34s that were also included in the Edison study.  Perhaps Edison will release more data on this group but the 1 chart they included on the types of stations they listened to back in 2000 and what they claim to listen to now:

The growth of Top 40/Hits is pretty obvious given the strength of the format and the music for the last 18 months.  Country is also on the rise with the youth movement in the format.  Other gainers include Christian, Classic Rock and even Classical.  The big losers are all forms of Rock, Rap/Hip Hop and R&B.   Also note that there are 9 shares missing in the 2010 data - that is probably due to the lower listening numbers to all radio in the decade.

When you look at the movement over the last decade in both Alternative and Hard/Active Rock to a lot more older songs in the mix and a lot less current music you probably have answered the 'why' question.   Rock formats clearly have a big challenge ahead with the under 34 audience.  It may be harder to find new music with the record companies struggling, but it's out there and somehow rock programmers need to find it.