Radio's Outdated Research Systems

We really don't have any index or measure of how many stations are doing any 'formal' audience research, but it's probably a safe bet that few are.  The days of doing an annual perceptual study and a full auditorium library test are most likely fading, or in many markets completely gone.  No doubt the economic slump isn't allowing the 'luxury' of gathering the audience's impressions of our products.  Clear Channel used to have a division (Critical Mass) with hundreds of people devoted to perceptual, call out and telephone marketing, now it's pretty much dismantled.  No doubt many in the top 50 markets are flying without any 'radar' looking out at the audience and gathering their impressions, preferences, and the reasons why they listen.  

Perhaps with all the data we have from PPM what do we really need research for anymore?  With PPM the game has changed from a recall strategy.  Now we actually see what the sample listens to minute by minute every day without any recall on their part.   We can see when they tune out and trace back to see why?  But, do we really know?  Did they leave because they hated the song or jock?  Or did they have to go to work and leave the car?  Did they pick up the kids and they flipped on another station?  

While we can finally see an accurate picture of what they listen to we really don't know why they listen, or why they don't.  We used to get some of the picture from perceptual and music testing, but we also had to tailor our research to the reality (from the past) that the audience had to recall their listening - not have it measured automatically.   Before we often won if the audience just remembered our call letters, frequency or slogan - now they actually have to listen for it to count.  

For many stations the perceptual and music testing has been taken over by the station's database.  The folks who are big enough fans to visit the web site, bother to sign up for another database, and wait for their mailbox to fill up with our newsletters.   We can test our music with them, ask a few usage questions, and maybe even find out who they think will win American Idol. But, these little bites of data we get from a small universe of very dedicated P1s is a very distorted picture of market and the audience.  We really can't see the much larger P2 groups or fans of other stations that could also be users of our product.   No doubt the low cost of doing music testing and asking a few questions of the super P1s in your database is worth it, but we have to realize it's not a very complete picture.   

The advent of PPM, the changes in the way the world communicates, and the economic realities are all combining, making the old styles of research outdated and ineffective.  

Spending 50K (or more) on a perceptual study that only reaches the households that will bother to answer the phone and hang with a 25 minute questionnaire are gone.  While we used to justify using the telephone with 'that's the way Arbitron does it' it doesn't work anymore.  Even Arbitron is trying to use address based samples to gather the sample and in PPM they pretty much keep the same panel for up to 18 months.   

Not only do we lack the budget in today's world - is the data still giving us an useful picture?  

In PPM we are now looking more at behavior - not recall.   To be effective we actually have to understand how they behave, not just what they remember or what we've drilled into their brains.   But, we've pretty much quit asking the questions in an organized and strategic format.   And it's happening at a time when we have a complete overhaul going on in the media landscape.  This is like shutting down all the weather monitoring systems in Oklahoma in February for 8 months - we'll just keep looking out the window for those pesky tornadoes.  

It's time to get our heads out of the sand and start listening to the audience again, but we also need a new model.   The perceptual studies from the 70s/80s are too slow, cumbersome and expensive in today's world.   On top of that we are still asking lots of questions that date back to the recall days of measurement.   

It's time for innovation in research, but is anyone working on it?  

Rock and PPM

With the news of K Rock in New York flipping to CHR from Rock there are some interesting questions on the format in general.  

K Rock launched 2 years ago as the news out of Philly's early days with PPM that Rock formats look to be gaining from the change in measurement systems.  The early graphs comparing the data clearly showed in Philly and Houston that rock radio's shares were a lot higher.  Back in the Fall of 06 both WMMR and WMGK in Philly were up over 70%.  

The thought was that with a broader panel that was in place for longer runs and able to be more 'controlled' for demo spread and the move to the meter, which didn't require writing it down or remembering listening would benefit rock.  Philly added a rock outlet and suddenly New York was back into rock with 2 stations added to the format.  

In the end PPM's benefits for rock may have cooled, but the reality here just may be that K Rock didn't do a very good job in launching the station and flat out failed.  Some of the likely reasons: 

• Morning show - Oppie and Anthony may have had some interest in NYC, but it clearly wasn't enough.  They may have had a chance to really establish themselves if they had been able to build on their gains leading up to the Sex for Sam bit that pushed them off the air.  But, the years waiting to come back and the dominance of Howard took much of that avenue away.  
• Music Image - In the end a lot of the station rode on O and A and tried to keep what audience they had to hang in there.  The problem is that O and A hurt any chance to develop a music image for KRock.  
• Music Strategy - What was it?  They played everything from Classic Rock stuff like Heart to the latest from harder rock bands like Shinedown.  Really they only played 1 current an hour for the most part and tried to wander to Alternative, some pop Active Rock acts, and a bunch of Classic Rock all mixed in.  With another Classic Rock in the market and now a 'Adult Alternative' what did K Rock really stand for?   They could have been a more pure Alternative or Active rock and focused on the 18-40 audience but they took a broad approach and tried to cross cume with the Classic Rock and probably also reacted to the launch of the Adult Alternative.  The launch with the K Rock Los Angeles team sort of 'passing on the playlist' and then a number of shifts as they PDs left the station.  The air staff also wandered around.  Really the only constant here was O and A with a wandering approach in all the other dayparts. 

KRock could have taken advantage of the gains PPM has to offer (by fairly sampling 18-49 Men) if they had followed some basic rules to making a great rock station:  

• BE LOCAL - This rings true more so in rock than any other format.  KROQ in LA is a very unique product that is tailor made for LA.   WDVE is different from most other heritage Classic Rock leaning stations - completely customized for Pittsburgh.   We could go on and on here.  You have to reflect your community in rock more than any other format.  This is really a street format and you have to come from the streets to build it.   Having an British guy in afternoons and a playlist mostly from LA to launch with really hurt here.  
• ESTABLISH A MUSIC POSITION - There was plenty of room to come on and be the loudest, proudest and in you face rock station in NYC.  It was obvious and last year was a great year for this approach musically.  
• A MORNING SHOW THE REST OF THE STATION CAN KEEP UP WITH - Not that O and A overshadowed the station by that much - but they made every day about them - not the station.  Also going with a Syndicated product that was in pressure for many markets as well as their XM deal really made O and A NOT a part of K ROCK.   They were from another planet beaming it into the biggest market in the country.   At least Howard earned a huge NYC audience before attempting to branch out.   
• MORE THAN BILLBOARDS - Yes they had lots of them, but building a rock community in NYC would have been a lot more valuable.  Building the club and concert scene, getting your team out in the streets, and making the station musically special on a regular basis would have helped build more than just some rock cume passing through.   

When you look at WAXQ (Classic Rock) on paper or through the speakers the playlist is very New York driven and the air talent has a long history in rock in the area.  This station has worked the streets for a long time and is first in mind for rock music as it was the only outlet to count on for much of the last decade.  They were hovering around a 3 share in the old diary system - now they are a full share stronger in the 4s.  As K Rock leaves they will likely go higher.  

There are great opportunities for Rock formats with PPM.  The audience is at a very strong point right now.  But, you have to do the homework and hit the street.  This is not a plug and play format.  

Pumping Up RADIO

As we watch another exciting plunge in the stock market and more reports on radio's economic picture for 08 and the first months of 09 - the news looks worse every day.   Here are a couple of thoughts that might help:  

A Message for ALL:

Here's a thought - think of all the commercials we ran for HD radio. In the Nielsen most played commercials 'charts' the HD campaign was in the top 3 for much of 08.   How about launching a new campaign across all formats and stations that goes like this:   

Hi this is your radio.  Yes I've been around a long time with music, news, sports, weather, traffic and witty comments here and there.  But if you look deeper you'll learn that radio can really help this economy and our community get out of these tough times.  Radio gets advertising messages out to 94% of our community and the whole nation every week.  The retailers of our area can get the word out on their products and get this economy moving again for very reasonable costs.   Radio is also easy to use - a few creative words and your good to go.  The message efficiently reaches our market area.   Radio - a part of your community, living here, working here, playing here and striving to make our area a better place.  

Of course a professional copy creator could probably do a better job, but our industry could turn this tough economy into a turning point for Terrestrial Radio with a well crafted message like this.  I know we didn't do a great job of selling HD radio, but this is a basic message we could sell to our audience and clients.  And the good news - it's true.   

Bright Spots in the Economy Dust Storm: 

There are some business and retail segments that are growing in this downtrend.  I gathered these from a bunch of stories from USA Today, CNN, CNBC, Yahoo and MSNBC:  

Movies:  The box office for 08 was off around 5% but for the first 2 months of 09 it's up 15%.  Just like in the depression when the  movie industry became a big industry.  Escaping the reality is worth a price.  

Fast Food:  Just about everyone is improving - especially McDonalds and Subway.  

Wal-Mart - Discount Stores: We're looking for bargains. 

Cell Phones - There's still growth left and lots of 'turf wars' over subscribers.  Give up your land line?  Why Not.   Turn in your Cell Phone?  Are you crazy? 

Used Cars - January was a strong showing for Used Car sales.  Maybe we can't go for the new cars, but that 05 Mustang looks pretty good.  Car dealers often make as much or more on their used inventory.  

Financial Services - From Tax prep firms, to credit assistance, to bankruptcy assistance.   It's a time for these services to grow.  

College and Trade Schools:  Plenty of people who could use new skills and now with college tax credits, more loans and some layoff packages offering re-training the local colleges are running at full throttle.  

Home Style Cookin:  Restaurants that are off the beaten path and offer 'comfort food' are gaining more customers.   Good news these are often local advertisers.   

Bars, Beer and liquor stores:  Biz is up here - we can guess why.  

Video Games:  Activision and EA games had record profits in 08 and were some of the best gaining stocks in January.  Game Stop is opening 300 or more stores this year!!!

Little Luxuries:  Flowers.com did a huge number this Valentines day.  So did Pajama Gram and Vermont Teddy Bears, with a lot of it from their radio campaigns.  Many higher end restaurants also did well.  We'll spend the money for love. 

Banks: They need to restore their trust in the community and get funds flowing into them.  They need to market.    

You can bet there are more business segments that will gain in this down time.  If you have any stories pass them on.   

Rebuilding Radio's Advertising Potential

After signing up for a daily Ad Age newsletter I started getting the weekly Ad Age magazine for some promotional reason.  Was roaming through it over breakfast this morning for their Super Bowl wrap up coverage, which was very interesting.   

One thing stood out - Full Page ads for both Val Pak and Newspapers posted above (sorry they didn't all scan in, but you get the picture here).   

We have 2 older type advertising media here.  The Cox owned Val Pak direct mail service, which Cox is trying to sell along with a few newspapers.  And one from the Newspaper Project, an industry alliance to help their cause.   

2 media that are way behind radio in reaching the masses.   While Val Pak is in many markets they don't have full coverage and still rely on the mail box - a tough delivery system.  Newspapers are falling in their reach and while they claim 100 million readers here - radio reaches over 230 million people 12 plus in a week according to the latest Arbitron estimates (mostly done with diaries - imagine what it will be with PPM in the top 30 markets). 

Looking at a number of Ad Age issues I only caught 3 radio ads or campaigns in the last 6 months.   1 came from SBS - Spanish Broadcasting - with a small ad in a special Hispanic section Ad Age did.   Another came from Entercom who ran a very nice full page ad that explained their properties and reach.  The only RAB ad was for their 'radio coverage' of the Ad Week convention last September.  It didn't talk about radio or any of our advantages, just that they had some kind of radio system set up to deliver podcasts and to broadcast live updates at the convention.  Gee - that really helps sell the media, we can talk about the latest Google marketing system or maybe cover the conference on the latest way to reach people on the web. 

While Ad Age may not be the best vehicle to promote our potential to market stuff to our huge audience what kind of effort are we really making here?   It's one thing to offer lots of sales training and come up with a few buttons that say Radio Heard Here.   It's another to rebuild the image of Radio as a media that reaches nearly the whole country on a local level with very affordable programs.  

We need to 'fly the flag' a lot more for our industry.  If you look through Ad Age's articles only one showed up on some form of radio - Did Mel Pay Too Much For Howard.   Even Ad Age seems to have forgotten all about our Cinderella story.   Maybe it's time to hitch up the pumpkin coach, get all dressed up and hit the ball.   I bet if we spent just 1/2 of the money spent in Washington trying to push for more consolidation on some public relations and selling our advantages we could have weathered this storm a lot better.    Radio could have the image as an efficient, huge reach, and economical way to market products.   Just the tool to un-freeze the customer without killing your budget.   

Making a Syndicated Show Local

I think it's pretty obvious that the key to Radio's success and future lies in being Local and having strong ties to your local audience and community.   It's our BIG ADVANTAGE in the whole new media world that is very 'national and international' in its scope.  

We also see some big advantages in using Syndicated shows.  When you look at the debate in using a show like Bob and Tom in mornings the advantages usually outweigh everything.  Say it costs you 110K in market 120 to have the show.  If you tried to build a local show for 120K you would have to be very lucky to find 2 or 3 people who could even mount a very basic show for that price.  You wouldn't have the parade of comedians, stars, and the well timed humor of a veteran crew like Bob and Tom.  In many cases Bob and Tom outperform the rest of the station and add 20% or more to the overall shares and usually win (or come close) in 25-54s.  It takes a big local show to beat them.  

But, they can be beat with a local show.  A show that hits the streets, covers the local scene and preps with a vengeance can zip right past them.   Having worked on both sides of this street we've learned a few 'tricks':

• Working With A Syndicated Show:  No matter if it's B/T or Alice Cooper or any one of the other shows the key is making it a real part of the the station.  Don't just aim the satellite dish, program the digital studio and sit back.  Make the show as local as possible with tons of recycling, custom inserts in the show, special imaging (including lots cut by the show''s stars) in the breaks and make sure to use the show in as may promotions as you can.   Don't just give away a Harley - make it the Bob and Tom Harley and tie them in someway on the air.  Weave the show into the WHOLE day and on the flip side weave your station into their show as much as you possibly can.  
• Beating a Syndicated Show:  Make your show as local as possible and make it as great as possible.  Remember you are going up against great talent - average talent doesn't get syndicated.  Your team has to know the audience inside and out, know the community, and be super prepared every morning.  It takes lots of coaching, good talent in the room and a non stop effort in the streets.  You also need to package the show well, build a strong web interactive presence and make every show noteworthy/special.   

Yes they are simple steps, but so many times when look at the stations who don't win in either scenario they either thought that B/T would save the day all by themselves.   Or on the other side that just having a bit of local flavor would put their weak show on top.  

In the end it takes dedication and tons of hard work to make a show work today.  Especially in Mornings the field is often crowded.   And in today's tight belted world finding the resources to make a show into a winner is a challenge.   But, it can be done.  

Views on the New Year In Radio

Of course we face many challenges as 09 starts off with a deep freeze here in the North.  It seems as if the whole world is frozen with an economy that seems so confusing and desperate that everyone and everything has come to a stand still.  No doubt it will thaw out, but we are the only ones who can warm the climate here.  

On to some notes from the first few weeks of events and news in Radio: 

The mass layoffs at Clear Channel and other groups is tough to watch.  Having worked for CC they gave up some very talented people from the programming side and no doubt also left some productive sales people on the street.  But, did they do much trimming in their corporate accounting and legal teams?   I bet not.  

Even though these jobs don't really produce the product or make revenue from it I bet there are still people counting every penny 3 times and lawyers reviewing every contract and dragging things out.   I remember when CC took over the AM/FM world and most of the business managers were rather stunned at the corporate oversight.  Nothing happened without a long list of approvals and seemed out of control on the local level.  OK, so times are tough and cuts were needed.  Was it the best move to cut programming even further (it was already past the bone) and now to cut out sales people?  Could a few productive people have been spared by only counting the pennies 2 times? 

While we can question the cuts the reality is - it's time to remake our business.  It's time to get hungry again and re-invent our programming and our sales systems for a new world that is already here and passing us by.  

PPM has now spread it's wings to Canada with the first release of the Fall ratings in Montreal.  The rest of the bigger markets in Canada will adopt the system over the next 2 years. There are some differences as they have set the meters to measure it minute by minute and they print out the Cume by both the Average Daily Cume and the Cume for the whole survey.   It was interesting to see that Cumulative Cume number - the top 3 stations reached over 3 million people in a market of 3.3 million, 4 more stations reached over 2.5 million!!!  Wow you could reach nearly the whole market by just buying 1 station if you ran the message for 13 weeks.   Don't know any other media where you can accomplish that.  

PBS - Make Em Laugh should be must see TV for your air staff.  This is a complete history of comedy from all angles.  Billy Crystal and Amy Sedaris host the show and gives your air staff a big picture look at what makes comedy work.   All the styles from shocking to physical prat falls are showcased with a complete history of all the greats in each style.  If you're going to entertain an audience you need to study the craft and this is a great resource.   

Music Thoughts for 09:  In 08 we had a good year in rock with veterans like AC/DC, Metallica, Guns n' Roses, and Motley Crue adding to an already strong line up of more current bands like 3 Days Grace, Theory of a Deadman, and many more.  The year starts off with U2 returning and perhaps a Pearl Jam and STP CD later in the year.   It doesn't look as promising as 09 did, but you never know. 

A Programming Thought For the New Year:  Radio has been all about the format for a very long time.  I don't mean being Rock or CHR or AC - I mean our programming structure on the air hour after hour.   It's the same clocks and rotations nearly every day.  10 in a Row every hour with breaks :40 and :50 or some other robotic plan.   The same rotation system day after day to the point where we have to trick the software so everyone doesn't know what A is next in the stack.  Why can't every day be unique, surprising and a little different?  It's time to get creative - anyone with a computer can duplicate robotic-formatic radio.  In any research we do the biggest audience complaint is repetition and while they often cite the music a little probing also shows they mean the formatics that rule every hour over and over.  For your brand to stand out and be a leader you have to lead them somewhere.  Let's quit being robots and start being outgoing - creative humans again.   

The 00 Decade

Happy New Year!!!  We're into 2009 this week and the last year of the first decade of the new century.  We've been defining the decades for a long time.  It probably started with the Roaring 20s and picked up steam in the 60s and 70s.  The revolution of the 60s and the wild days of the 70s, the conservative and yuppieness of the 80s and the digital 90s decade all had 'themes' that defined the trends in our culture.    

These themes all have had a lot of influence on our music and entertainment choices as well as evolving new media.   The 60s brought on the maturity of network TV, pop music super stars with music as a revolution messenger, and the top 40 format,  the 70s saw the beginning of Cable TV, the evolution of FM radio and a continued growth of the music industry into the Super Groups.   The 80s conservatism re-established Pop music trends, saw cable TV evolve to a new norm, and FM radio grew to the dominate music platform.  The 90s brought in the digital revolution which evolved over the decade finishing with a wealth of new WWW based media on a platform that was a government project at the start of the decade.   

The 00's or Ought decade or maybe the twenty-ohs is nearing an end and Jonah Goldberg from the National Review Online (and CNN) makes some interesting observations in this article.  

Goldberg's observation's on the 00 decade being one of self centered-ness maybe best illustrated on the factoid from the 90s that bottled water consumption passed beer in the decade.  Goldberg notes - Beer gets the party started.  Water is the thirst quencher of choice for the solitary fitness addict,.   Beer the outgoing social drink - passed by bottled water and it's inner driven world. 

He also notes that the Ipod follows a similar trend - the personalization of music and entertainment generally.   An inner driven world where music is personalized - not shared or experienced in a community like a live performance or a radio station where we all hear it at the same time.   He goes on to point out the IPod culture, is a mix of self-promotion and atomization: broadcast yourself, indeed.   

Yet at the end of this decade perhaps we are seeing a big clue that the tide is turning away from this me driven, self absorbed, over personalized and customized world of the 00s.   

A key clearly stood out in the election - Change was the KEY mantra and turning out in big crowds and joining in a huge community voter turnout were the clear signs.   From a world revolving around the solitary keyboard and monitor to communities filled with real people and personalities.  A movement from individualistic concerns to UNITY.   A movement away from 'greed is good' to a far more social and sharing society?   The signs are starting to show up on a very regular basis.   

This could be a great movement for radio to re-invent itself upon.   Don't you think???? 

Hope you had a great holiday and are ready for the evolution that starts in 2009.   

Opportunities for Radio- The Wrap

Looking back on the 4 opportunities for radio that we've covered in the last few weeks I bet you can't believe they are SO SIMPLE.   Outside of building our brands into the web and embracing new distribution channels most of the opportunities here lie in getting back to the basics of our products.  

Focusing on our LOCAL presence, being special and creative, and refocusing our sales effort to be effective with the new competition are ingredients we've all used over and over.   Yet, the only plan we seem to see right now is cut costs in every direction, and many of the cuts are no doubt going to hinder efforts in these basic opportunities.  

Yes keeping or re-building local presence means keeping people in the building on the air and in the streets.  Being special and creative also means having the staff to create and execute.  Refocusing the sales effort will also take time, good sales folks and a well crafted plan.  While there are not many low or no cost solutions here I bet most of you could build a plan and find a way to make it work even in the present tight times.   

If there ever was a time to pull it off - it's NOW.  With the economy in a holding pattern and so many advertisers rethinking their whole approach Radio has a golden opportunity to come out of the down cycle with a big rush.  

No doubt advertisers will be looking for low cost opportunities to get their business' flowing again.  Radio to the rescue with huge reach, low costs and so many opportunities to get images and messages to the consumers.  

Our biggest problem is that our image is tattered with many advertisers.  We are not the new 'sexy' media.   But, we are the affordable, big reach, still local, and we can be as creative with the message as well as any other media.  That is the message we need to get out there right now.  But we need to start building a focused plan on both the local and national level.   

Yes we are the underdog in many ways, but just like so many success stories where the underdog pulls out a big win we need to set the table for our wild card team to bring home the winning run.  That takes a plan and the team to execute it.