The E Diary

While there is a lot of talk around the People Meter (PPM) at Arbitron let's not forget about the introduction of the E Diary. With the start of the Winter 2007 survey period Arbitron started offering participants the option of logging their listening on-line for the first time. Instead of the pencil and paper diary they can go on-line and fill it out.

Hit this link if you want to see a sample of the E-Diary http://www.arbitron.com/home/ediary_page.htm

Really it's pretty simple and for many respondents, especially younger ones (in their 20s), this might prove more comfortable. Arbitron's research claims that roughly 1 in 20 (5%) of the respondents will opt for the E Diary, but we should expect to see a higher percentage in the sample under 35.

While PPM will only effect the top 10 markets a year from now the E Diary effects everyone (except Houston and Philly - they use PPM only now). While it won't be a big difference at least Arbitron is trying to enter the on-line world with the sample. Of course they have some security built in and they also issue reminders in email instead of using the phone.

It will be intersting to see if they get more than 5% from on-line diaries. I bet they do.

Fall 06 Rock Ratings Review and PPM?

You can review our analysis of the Fall Arbitron ratings summary for Rock Formats on the McVay Media website - http://www.mcvaymedia.com/rock/07/Fall_06_Rock_Ratings_Summary.pdf



It's not a pretty picture and while all of us in the rock radio world do have some valid reasons and excuses it's time for action. See the full picture for yourself.












I am also preparing a review of the new People Meter system that Arbitron has now certified and will be implementing throughout the next year in a number of the larger (mostly top 10) markets. After attending the on-line Arbitron sessions it's obvious that PPM will have many complex and far reaching changes that will affect all of us even if your market never gets the service!!! As soon as we get that article posted on the McVay Media site please read it for your own career's sake.

On Line Research

Been preparing a Panel for the Canadian Music Week conference in Toronto comparing on-line and traditional phone based research systems. For most of you who have never been to a CMW convention Canadian Music Week is a unique gathering of Canadian artists and broadcasters every March in Toronto. There are many sessions for both the broadcasters and the musicians and lots of showcases - it's a lot more like the Country convention in Nashville than the typical NAB or R and R meeting we have in the U.S.

Our panel for the On-Line/Traditional session includes Jeff Vidler from Solutions Research in Canada, Mark Kassof from Kassof Research, Tom Meyer from Media Score on line research and Julie Adams VP/GM/PD at CHDI in Toronto. I've worked with Jeff, Mark and Tom on various projects in Canada and with Tom and Jeff we have stations where we do all on-line research. Perceptual studies, library music tests (300 plus titles) and monthly call out style testing is all done on-line.

There are a lot of advantages to doing research this way including:

• Sample Size - In most music tests we are lucky to have 80 people in the room, but most on-line projects are at least 300. The much larger sample allows us to slice and dice the data a lot more with confidence in the results.
• Respondents dictate the pace - Since all the respondents are doing the study on their computers at their pace they can stop for dinner, replay the song or audio/video element and take the test at their pace. No more people in a music test finding themselves 3 songs behind or rushing through answers on the phone. People actually have time to think about their responses and it shows in the data.
• Phones - Even though Arbitron and BBM still use phones to gather the sample it's quickly becoming an outdated way to do research. We can't use cell phones and so many people really don't communicate much anymore on their land lines.
• New presentations on the questions - On line we can play audio, video and even use some java/flash tricks to make the questionnaire more interesting and interactive. No more repeating 'on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being love it and 1 meaning you hate it...' We can put a little volume control up and tell them to turn it up or down.
• Costs - It's clearly less expensive to do research on-line than using call out, phone banks and auditorium tests.

The biggest obstacle is gathering a sample. With the phone we have a directory that probably includes at least 60% of the phone numbers in the market so we can just grab a bunch of numbers and start dialing. On the Internet it's a little harder. There are millions of email addresses and since the user defines the name there's no system to it. The addresses are also all over the world which won't help you in the middle of Kentucky. We have found more and more databases of email addresses to use. In Canada, with a smaller population base, it's a little easier to find email databases that are sorted by geographic area (postal codes) and ages. For the monthly music testing on-line we build a database from on-air/web promos and for the library (bigger) music tests we use a combo of station and outside databases.

Actually the results have been very useful. The music scores are a little more passionate than we see in the auditorium tests, with less unfamiliarity and higher burn scores. In the perceptual studies we see a lot more longer and more detailed responses to open ended/comment style questions. You can see that when the audience has a little more time to respond and can do it at their pace we get more data and they are clearly a little more 'into it.'

This is the future of research. Some may argue that this system is not as random, doesn't match the systems the ratings firms use, and that we don't have as much control over who we are talking to. All valid points, but having a lot bigger samples, moving away from the outdated phone line, lower costs and getting a lot more data are also big advantages that need to be considered. We all know we need to re-think and re-invent radio to survive in the new media world. We're going to need research and data to do it and a lot of it. On-line systems will have to become a part of the plan sooner than later.

Guest comments

This week we have a guest comment from Lou Mazz - and later in the week check in as we break down the Fall 06 Arbitrons for rock across the nation.

Thanks Lou for the comments.


I was reading some of Dave Lange's comments about programming myths,
and it got me thinking. http://www.mcvaymedia.com/rock/06/programming_myths_part1.html

This is always dangerous.

When I was a pup (and transmitters had spark gaps), we did free-form rock with no
playlist (we could pull from 10,000 LPs) and a simple clock: legal ID on the hour and
a network news feed at :15. All us found ouselves mostly playing 3 or 4 song sets
because otherwise the back-annoucing would get annoying. But, when the time was
right, we could rip into a longer set as long as we covered the spot load (which was
maybe 6 or 8 minutes an hour, not 10). But regardless, we tended to cluster the spots
into stop sets, as is common practice today.

As Dave points out, when iPods and their ilk are everywhere, anyone who wants long
stretches of commercial-free music can get it. So is it really sensable to try to compete
with that when the result is even larger spot clusters? But what's the alternative?
Folks in the video part of the spectrum are playing with 15-second, 10-second and
even 5-second ads as an alternative to traditional 30s and 60s. It is generally easier
to stitch these short ads into audio than video - and it offers up some interesting
wrinkles that could be added to a rate card. For instance - why not sell a "mini set" of
three songs with two 10-second bookends and two 5-second interstitials? You could
chage a premium over a standard :30 because you'd be selling separate impressions,
tied together. This would probably work best for image messaging as opposed to
a specific promotion, where you want to pack all of the relevent info into one burst.
And since I'm borrrowing from TV, let's keep going. Integrate contests into ads. Produce
several variants of a spot and give a prize away to the listener who identifies the correct
version you just played. This would help fight tuneout, offer an additional up-sell to
an advertiser (either on the rate card or in trade), and provide some interesting (and
probably much-needed) creative fodder for your production folks.

I can imagine both of these concepts being executed horribly or being overused,
giving us the aural equivalent of ads on eggs or on the bottom of airport security trays.
But done right, it could be an important part of making "advertainment", which will be a
key to the next phase of commercial radio, regardless of format.
Yours in commerce,
Lou Mazz

Internet Radio Listening UP 150%!!!!

This week we see in a release from JP Morgan that weekly listening to Internet Radio Stations or streams is up 150% growing from 20 Million weekly listeners at the start of 2006 to a new estimate of 30 Million. Revenue from streaming and the web sites that go along with the streaming stations is also up to 500 Million.

That's very impressive growth and likely to continue as more and more people find out how easy it is to tune in on the lap top or desktop. When you compare this media to all the talk and noise we have from the Satellite Radio camps you can see why there is talk of a merger of XM and Sirius. Right now the best estimates place satellite radio subscribers at 14 Million and the goal is to deliver 20-30 Million by 2010. Internet Radio has been quietly growing and is already past their 2010 goal. At this rate by 2010 Internet Radio would pass 80 million - well over double the Satellite Radio audience.

Now we add the news that the technology is available to turn your car into a WIFI hot spot and be able to full access the web as you drive down I-75 and we can easily imagine being able to tune into the whole spectrum.

Stop moaning! You're great radio brand already has a web site and you can (with a little work) stream if you are not already doing it. The audience is growing and streaming technology is getting easier to deal with every day. Just the other day I was listening to the Score in Chicago and they noted that over 4,000 were listening on the stream that morning.

We DO need to work out a settlement with Arbitron on getting credit for streams even if the commercial content is different due to the voice over compensation. Sooner or later the VO talent has to realize that their 'fight' over this will hinder the whole terrestrial radio industry and that they are being very selfish and endangering their whole lively hood. The ad agencies also need to see this writing on the wall.

Is Your Morning Show Safe?

The recent events at The End in Sacramento should be a bit scary to most PDs and Morning Shows. The show did a pretty typical stunt for a Nintendo Wii where you 'held your wee for a wii.' Contestants drank equal quantities of water and the last one to go the bathroom wins the Wii. The problem here is one of the contestants tragically died from drinking too much water. The intense local media coverage of the event resulted in the firing of 10 staff members including the talent on the show, PD, Promotions director, and others. It will be a challenge for the staff members to find other jobs and for the station to rebuild it's image and find another show.

The questions for the rest of us - could this happen to my show?

While this could have been an unfortunate accident it's also a style of stunt we hear on a lot of stations and usually comes off with the only damage being a bit of embarrassment. Think of all the other types of stunts that could have gone wrong. What would happen if we had the 'hands on the car game' going and someone had an allergy or medical condition that got out of control and they died or became seriously ill? Singing from the Shower - and they slip and fall? Even calling in on a contest on a cell phone and getting into a car accident could be something that gets out of control.

One of the resources you should add to the show is some kind of medical advice. It might be a local doctor that also drops in for a weekly live Q/A with the audience. Make sure you consult them before you do anything to a person's body. There are claims in the Sacramento cast that a nurse warned them of this possibility before the stunt.

Also make sure you have signed waivers and that you have talked over these types of situations with your legal team. While it might be an extra hassle in preparing a bit or a stunt - better safe than sorry. It might also be necessary to have medical histories and maybe even a doctor's permission in the legal documents in the future.

The key in managing these events on morning shows is making sure you've taken a careful approach without stifling the ideas. We've all seen the frustration and lack of creativity when you start shutting down too many ideas with 'what if' scenarios.

The reality TV shows have prompted this style of stunt and an accident like this could happen to them. I wonder if they have gone to some the measures suggested here?

The key lesson here is take a few minutes before you get into any type of physical stunt and make sure you don't end up with a career and life threatening situation.

Faster Horses

One of the many quotes that came from automaker Henry Ford has a lot of relevance to Radio Programming right now:

"If I had asked my customers what they wanted," Ford said, "they would have said a faster horse."

We are clearly faced with the opportunity and the need to re-invent. But, where do we start? Just making a better sounding station that's just like what we have now with only a few researched innovations is only a 'faster horse.' It won't compete with all the innovations in new media and become a 'leading edge' product.

The lesson from Ford's quote is that research will probably not yield new innovations. The audience can only give us feedback on what they already know and have heard. If we are going to create something innovative it's going to take a creative idea, a solid plan to implement it, and GUTS. After we have the product on the air we can and should use research to fine tune and improve it. We may also get a few clues on what the audience will and will not accept in the innovation stages.

Hopefully 2007 will be the year when Radio starts to innovate and create again.

Classic Rock and New Music

We all know the success of the Classic Rock formats in most of their incarnations (Classic Rock, Classic Hits, Classic Rock that Rocks, etc). One of the hallmarks was the purity of making sure that Classic only meant old songs. If old artists happened to release a new CD for the most part the Miller Lite Man Law Board of programmers always voted it down and declared ‘Good Call.’

There is ‘other evidence’ all over the place that 25-54s are still following veteran Classic Rockers as they continue to extend their careers. No doubt we’ll see more evidence as George Martin and his son Giles release their re-mix of Beatles songs on the Love CD. In 2006 we saw a number of Classic Rock vets still in action with some very strong CDs:

The Who

The Stones

Bob Seger

David Gilmour

Eric Clapton and JJ Cale

Dylan

Frampton

Def Leppard

Are just a few and we still have leftovers from 2005 from U2, McCartney, Robert Plant, Santana and others that sold well or at least aroused a curiosity in the 25-54 audience.

The Beatles release will likely be the biggest news here and will probably only receive a little airplay and a few ‘special segments’ in the format. Listening to the pre-release tracks like Lady Madonna, Octopus’ Garden, and the haunting slow demo of While My Guitar Gently Weeps all re-vamped with complete re-mixes is fascinating and haunting all at the same time. Why can’t we play this with enough frequency to reach the large Classic Rock audience?

Really it’s gotten to a point where Classic Artists are taking their songs and talent elsewhere. Bon Jovi is trying to breakout at Country and even taking a strong presence at next year’s CMA. Mellencamp writes a good song and sells it to Chevy instead of trying to keep his career alive in radio. Even the Beatles/George Martin have gone to Vegas with the Love CD, it’s really a soundtrack to the Cirque du Soleil show.

Santana has teamed up with Pop stars and gone to pop/CHR/hot AC for most of his return. The Stones and McCartney have staged their huge comebacks on the concert stage with the most successful tours in years. Dylan did a cameo in Victoria Secrets spots to keep alive. The Who’s classics in the CSI series no doubt at least allowed them to show up with their new CD. Seger’s gonna try the talk shows and a tour for his comeback.

Other media seems ready to jump in and support the on-going talent and efforts from the Classic Rock Vets. Yet, the centerpiece of radio’s link to these artists remains pretty silent. Maybe a resolution for the new year??? Maybe a new idea as we cue up ‘Start Me Up’ for the thousandth spin???