A Lesson From Political Polls

 

As we head into the 2022 midterm U.S. elections we are seeing a lot of confusion with the polling system.  For 60+ years we have had political polls at the center of our elections.  They called up thousands of random people with a quick survey to research the election and make predictions.  Until we had cell phones the surveys could depend on the responder answering their phone at home and taking the time to answer the questions.  With enough random calls completed, a demographic and geographic balance (or weighting) could predict within 5% of the election results - which is the sampling error.   

BUT - now we have the cell phone, with caller ID built-in, we carry it everywhere and even drive with it.  It even shows us telemarketing and spam calls so getting a 'random sample' is almost impossible as very few are answering the call.  We also don't have a reliable 'phone book' with most of us keeping our cell numbers hidden from public view.  Most researchers use random number systems to try and make calls.  

In the end pollsters and researchers struggle to get respondents and then even when they answer the time is limited as they walk, drive, shop, ride elevators, and who knows what else while talking on the phone.  Some have tried to go to online research patterns but then how do you obtain a truly random sample?  

All of these drawbacks and 'excuses' have left most pollsters and political watchdogs confused.  Here on election eve, some are making big predictions, but are also walking them back after they have seen the last 4 elections end up with results that the polls missed.  

Here in radio land we also have become dependent on a lot of research and polls to determine who we program and relate to the audience.  Is this research helping, or just bringing in lots of false information that we end up acting on and failing with? 

The same realities that are casting confusion and doubt on the election polling are also baked into our music research, audience-level ratings, and perpetual studies done for years and years. 

Is New Music Going to DIE??

 From radio's perspective, the emphasis is clearly on Classic Hits and Classic Rock.  The number of stations in each format continues to grow and the ratings most often find the 2 formats near the top of the ranks.   In the Billboard sales, streams, and downloads tallies we saw older songs outperforming the newer songs.  As we look over the testing we have on newer songs it gets harder and harder to see a huge value in nearly any format.  Even in Country the newer songs are not having the impact they used to.  You see big classic artists selling their whole catalog for 100s of millions in instant revenue.  How much value is there in music that's 50 years old? It looks like a lot more than any current songs on the chart. So what is happening?  A lot of elements are combining and changing the whole landscape of music but these 3 stand out a lot.   

• Gatekeepers and Influencers: Back in the 'good ole days" you had Radio stations playing music, TV shows with artists as guests, concert tours, and perhaps you could have your song on a big movie soundtrack.  You had a whole network of promo folks drumming up radio airplay, the label or your manager also secured some TV shows, and of course, you hit the road to play live.

• Today's Market landscape: In today's world you have radio airplay centralized with corporate, radio having a diminished stand in the new music landscape, and tons of different exposure platforms from podcasts to YouTube channels, and social media groups across 5-6 platforms.  And you don't have a 'label' providing its network to help.  We have a lot of noise to get past for any musician. For a while, we saw some new artists evolving from reality TV shows.  But, now that is also drying up as we have fewer of those shows and their viewership is waiting.  Radio also used to work with them playing the songs from the show and having Ryan Seacrest on both platforms.  We've also had 2.5 years in pandemic land that has no doubt affected the music we are hearing today.  Tours shut down for 18 months.  Artists tried Zoom recordings, they had some time to write but to join up and record face to face?  

• The Music Itself:  This may be a big KEY to why the whole game.  Who needs musicians anymore?  We have Pro Tools

Just find a way to sample, lay down a couple of chords, cut and paste and you have instant computer music.  We can say that the evolution of keyboards and electric guitars was just as much of a revolution in making music, but this is different.  You still needed to respect and follow the standards of rhythm, meter, key, and musicianship to make a song.  The best artists crafted carefully writen songs with creative poetry that blended with the instruments to create the art that is a song.  

Has the computerization of music turned us back to longing for a day when you had to really have harmony and couldn't just auto tune it.  To a day when you actually had to play that cool bass riff for the whole song to lay down a base with the percussion?   

It's more than just the software we have whole new creations that are way more than just instruments to play music on.  The Instrument here has 100s of instruments built in with all the software to build chord progressions, rhythm patterns, music theroy is built in, and you will never hit a wrong note again!!  The Instrument Review  Is this real music or computer genereated Virtual Songs? 

What its all led to is a new music landscape more based on 'the look' the 'Instagram/ticktok/Facebook/Twitter image than it is about the music.   Where are the songwriters and musicians that will challenge Pink Floyd, The Stones, The Beatles, Garth, Prince, Linda Ronstadt, The Eagles, Fleetwood Mac, Ozzy, Van Halen, CSNY, Dylan, Paul Simon, and so many more?  

During the pandemic, we saw a huge increase in the sales of guitars online.  As we sat locked away for almost 2 years we should expect to see something coming from all those guitars.  Hopefully soon.  

The link below is to a You Tuber who has built a following of over 3 million. He breaks down music from the perspective of a trained musician and a producer.  He has a master's in music, has taught music on the college level, and produced Shinedown, Parmalee, and others.  He does the show from his recording studio in Atlanta.  If you want to really learn how a song is built and what makes it great Rick will teach you a lot. 

Watch him breakdown the top 10 from last April  

Rick Beato You Tube

And Lastly even Archie saw this coming (thanks to Lee Arnold for posting this Pic)