A Lesson From Political Polls

 

As we head into the 2022 midterm U.S. elections we are seeing a lot of confusion with the polling system.  For 60+ years we have had political polls at the center of our elections.  They called up thousands of random people with a quick survey to research the election and make predictions.  Until we had cell phones the surveys could depend on the responder answering their phone at home and taking the time to answer the questions.  With enough random calls completed, a demographic and geographic balance (or weighting) could predict within 5% of the election results - which is the sampling error.   

BUT - now we have the cell phone, with caller ID built-in, we carry it everywhere and even drive with it.  It even shows us telemarketing and spam calls so getting a 'random sample' is almost impossible as very few are answering the call.  We also don't have a reliable 'phone book' with most of us keeping our cell numbers hidden from public view.  Most researchers use random number systems to try and make calls.  

In the end pollsters and researchers struggle to get respondents and then even when they answer the time is limited as they walk, drive, shop, ride elevators, and who knows what else while talking on the phone.  Some have tried to go to online research patterns but then how do you obtain a truly random sample?  

All of these drawbacks and 'excuses' have left most pollsters and political watchdogs confused.  Here on election eve, some are making big predictions, but are also walking them back after they have seen the last 4 elections end up with results that the polls missed.  

Here in radio land we also have become dependent on a lot of research and polls to determine who we program and relate to the audience.  Is this research helping, or just bringing in lots of false information that we end up acting on and failing with? 

The same realities that are casting confusion and doubt on the election polling are also baked into our music research, audience-level ratings, and perpetual studies done for years and years. 

Is New Music Going to DIE??

 From radio's perspective, the emphasis is clearly on Classic Hits and Classic Rock.  The number of stations in each format continues to grow and the ratings most often find the 2 formats near the top of the ranks.   In the Billboard sales, streams, and downloads tallies we saw older songs outperforming the newer songs.  As we look over the testing we have on newer songs it gets harder and harder to see a huge value in nearly any format.  Even in Country the newer songs are not having the impact they used to.  You see big classic artists selling their whole catalog for 100s of millions in instant revenue.  How much value is there in music that's 50 years old? It looks like a lot more than any current songs on the chart. So what is happening?  A lot of elements are combining and changing the whole landscape of music but these 3 stand out a lot.   

• Gatekeepers and Influencers: Back in the 'good ole days" you had Radio stations playing music, TV shows with artists as guests, concert tours, and perhaps you could have your song on a big movie soundtrack.  You had a whole network of promo folks drumming up radio airplay, the label or your manager also secured some TV shows, and of course, you hit the road to play live.

• Today's Market landscape: In today's world you have radio airplay centralized with corporate, radio having a diminished stand in the new music landscape, and tons of different exposure platforms from podcasts to YouTube channels, and social media groups across 5-6 platforms.  And you don't have a 'label' providing its network to help.  We have a lot of noise to get past for any musician. For a while, we saw some new artists evolving from reality TV shows.  But, now that is also drying up as we have fewer of those shows and their viewership is waiting.  Radio also used to work with them playing the songs from the show and having Ryan Seacrest on both platforms.  We've also had 2.5 years in pandemic land that has no doubt affected the music we are hearing today.  Tours shut down for 18 months.  Artists tried Zoom recordings, they had some time to write but to join up and record face to face?  

• The Music Itself:  This may be a big KEY to why the whole game.  Who needs musicians anymore?  We have Pro Tools

Just find a way to sample, lay down a couple of chords, cut and paste and you have instant computer music.  We can say that the evolution of keyboards and electric guitars was just as much of a revolution in making music, but this is different.  You still needed to respect and follow the standards of rhythm, meter, key, and musicianship to make a song.  The best artists crafted carefully writen songs with creative poetry that blended with the instruments to create the art that is a song.  

Has the computerization of music turned us back to longing for a day when you had to really have harmony and couldn't just auto tune it.  To a day when you actually had to play that cool bass riff for the whole song to lay down a base with the percussion?   

It's more than just the software we have whole new creations that are way more than just instruments to play music on.  The Instrument here has 100s of instruments built in with all the software to build chord progressions, rhythm patterns, music theroy is built in, and you will never hit a wrong note again!!  The Instrument Review  Is this real music or computer genereated Virtual Songs? 

What its all led to is a new music landscape more based on 'the look' the 'Instagram/ticktok/Facebook/Twitter image than it is about the music.   Where are the songwriters and musicians that will challenge Pink Floyd, The Stones, The Beatles, Garth, Prince, Linda Ronstadt, The Eagles, Fleetwood Mac, Ozzy, Van Halen, CSNY, Dylan, Paul Simon, and so many more?  

During the pandemic, we saw a huge increase in the sales of guitars online.  As we sat locked away for almost 2 years we should expect to see something coming from all those guitars.  Hopefully soon.  

The link below is to a You Tuber who has built a following of over 3 million. He breaks down music from the perspective of a trained musician and a producer.  He has a master's in music, has taught music on the college level, and produced Shinedown, Parmalee, and others.  He does the show from his recording studio in Atlanta.  If you want to really learn how a song is built and what makes it great Rick will teach you a lot. 

Watch him breakdown the top 10 from last April  

Rick Beato You Tube

And Lastly even Archie saw this coming (thanks to Lee Arnold for posting this Pic)

Imaging - The BIG Key to Building a Great Station

 

Imaging has been evolving on radio stations as a key element to building the brand.  Crafting an overall style, positioning, at work listening, recycling the audience, building Morning Shows and personalities, building promotions, improving time spent listening, and other missions have evolved through imaging.  Those little 5-15 second links between the songs and around the stop sets are very important, but we all have to ask 'how well do we use them.?'

In the foundation days of music radio jingles did most of the imaging work.  We tried to make these messages sound like little songs.  A very effective idea, but soon we needed more and the task (or at least some of it) was moved over to the station voice.  

Working with stations today we often see less attention to imaging over the last few years in my opinion.   So many Operations Directors, PDs, or Brand Managers are working with 5 or more stations and by the time they manage the tasks around that Imaging is one that often ends up at the bottom of the stack.  

Ask any of the voice-over people how much copy they get every month?   Most will tell you that only a few stations come up with the 1 or 2 pages they contracted for.  

Yes, there are some stations that are very well imaged and take great care.  I can remember working with stations in Canada where they had production people that just handled imaging for the 3 stations in the building.   They cut everything from daily Morning Show recycling to contests, to special imaging for holidays or local events.   Today that would be a tough luxury to justify outside of the top tier markets.  

We also have a number of services that will craft the imaging for you.  Send them a page of copy and it's all produced and ready to air.  Many also offer amazing creativity.  

There is also a debate in imaging on how much do we cram into these spaces?  Some stations rely only on quick station name clips (Z104) and zip right back to the next song.  They don't try to build any of the imaging points listed above - just shut up and get on with it.  

One thought to consider on the value of your imaging.  Imagine you went to a client and they wanted to purchase 4 - 10 sec mentions between the songs, 2 30 sec promos leading off each stop set, a rejoin 10 second after the 2 stop sets, and a 20 sec ID at the top of the hour.   EVERY HOUR.  That's around 1000 10s, 375 30s, and 168 IDS a week.  Even if you only averaged 10 bucks a spot that's over $60,000 a month in marketing resources.  Over 700,000 a year!  How's that for a promotion budget?

Top 40 Music - Chicken Vs Egg???

One of the sharpest programming consultants and also a top advisor at I Heart Media is Guy Zapolean.  He's a father of the Hot AC format and a veteran of many Top 40 success stories for probably 30 years or more.  Guy has seen the music landscape and studied it in depth from a premise that Top 40 is a blend of music styles that focus on the best of  Pop, Urban, and Rock music styles.  When the blend is in balance the format has the best opportunity to win.

Of course, I'm paraphrasing and summarizing Guy's work and you can read more in the articles he's recently published in All Access.  He has also published older reports on much the same premise in All Access.

Here are links to the articles

The first outlines the theory
https://www.allaccess.com/consultant-tips/archive/26826/the-music-cycle-the-extremes-approaching-in-2018

The 2nd goes deeper into the data and yearly summary charts to show the effect of the theory on music popularity.
https://www.allaccess.com/consultant-tips/archive/28915/the-music-cycle---the-extremes-are-here-as

The 3rd looks at the rebirth of the cycle.
https://www.allaccess.com/consultant-tips/archive/20592/zapoleon-music-cycle-update-exiting-doldrums-and

The theory builds on a few key premises to success in the Top 40 format.

• Centrist Pop music is the 'glue' that holds the format together.  Taylor Swift, Katy Perry, Ariana Grande, Charlie Puth, Ed Sheeran, Maroon 5 are example artists.  The key element for Top 40 is getting Moms and Daughters and the balance of Pop is what holds them together. 
• Hip Hop/Urban and Pop Rock/Alternative are the other 2 key elements for the format.   Hip Hop has been growing and growing over the last 2 decades and now we have a chart that has a lot of Drake, Cardi B, Kendrick Lamar, Post Malone and more bubbling under.  There is also a Pop/Alternative side with Imagine Dragons, Lovelytheband, Panic at the Disco all having top 20 songs.  
• Hit music has 3 cycles in Guy's theory. 
• Birth - An explosion of pop music - The Beatles hit, MTV ushers in a wave of new artists, American Idol shines a big light on pop music, are all example events that spawned an explosion in pop music.  
• Extremes - The growth of Hip/Hop/Urban and Rock sides in popularity pushing the Pop elements to the background in the mix. 
• Doldrums - A phase where the balance is focused more on the extremes and the Pop music glue that holds the center of the format together is weaker and weaker.  

Guy's analysis on where we are now in the articles shows Top 40 is in the Doldrums.  The music mix has moved to Hip Hop/RB/Urban percentages above 50 in popularity charts and Pop has fallen to under 30.  In top 40 Airplay charts we still have Hip Hop/Urban around 25% and programmers have tried to keep Pop at 60%.  The format is forcing itself to stay in a Pop lane even though we see more energy in Hip Hop now. 

We've seen CHR stations slumping a bit in the ratings over the last year and this music cycle is a clear factor.  Guy's case is well laid out and the proof in his tracking of the CHR audience over decades is clear.  The data is clear that there is a slump in audience and the need for center pop songs/artists is pretty threatening.  

But, is it the Chicken or the Egg?  How much does radio AIRPLAY factor into making music popular?  

When you start looking at the charts and focus on the Pop songs and Pop artists you can see a clear favored status for Hip Hop music and Pop songs that might have been given enough spins to get them into the top 20 or top 15 fizzles out or take a long time to build.  

Look at 2 groups of songs here from the Top 40 charts this week.  

Juice Wrld, Post Malone - Sunflower, - The most dramatic here is Post Malone's Sunflower which in 3 weeks is already in the top 20.  Post Malone is on a huge roll and anything he's in seems to take off.  Juice Wrld took only 6 weeks to crack the top 15. 

Shawn Mendes - Lost in Japan,  Silk City/Dua Lipa, and Alessia Cara - Trust My Lonely.  Alessia is a huge talent with a lot of success to bank on.  But, after a full month only 60% of the CHR stations are playing the song and it sits in the 30s.  Shawn Mendes has seen more success with most adding him over a month ago and he is above 20 in airplay but the song is moving slowly through the 20s.  Dua Lipa could be a sign of a very strong new artist and part of a new birth cycle. She has had 2 hits in the last year and this is a good pop song,  but it's taken over 2 months to get this song above 20.  

We also see songs handing around the top slots forever.  Maroon 5 - Girls Like You is approaching 6 months of airplay and 420,000 spins, still showing top 5 airplay.   Post Malone - Better Now has a similar story 380,000 spins and top 5 with 7 months in the field.  Some of this is the importance of recurrents or very familiar songs in the PPM world.   New music and artists are a tougher sell to PPM programmers.  The PPM Media Monitor meters nearly always show a dip with new songs -- so caution is taken.  Why play the new Dua Lipa when you can spin Maroon 5 again for the 500,000th time.  

The question I'm posing is - do Top 40 programmers have enough influence over pop music to be able to do a better job of playing songs that fit the need for a strong pop center and keep the glue that holds the format together strong?   Or is it all determined by the audience?  Don't we still have enough leverage to have some control over the needle?  Do we always wait for the audience to tell us or do programmers seek out the songs that will balance the mix? 

While we can't win by playing stiff songs that don't cut it with the audience we can keep our balance and perhaps look not only at the charts but also at the value of the song in the mix a little more.  Could we also keep an eye on the whole audience, not just the Hip Hop fans?  We seemed to sit and just watch the flocks of moms and daughters and dates heading to Lady Gaga's Star is Born and ignore the big song from the movie.  Now we are playing catch up as the movie wraps up its theatre run with huge reviews and box office numbers.   

Now we see why Guy calls it the Doldrums.  

How Close Are You To Your Audience?

Are you close enough to really engage them? Or are you a distance voice reliant on the music you play that they can find in many places - with and without advertising? 

Is your audience a real part of your station, or just a set of ears on the other end of the speaker.  Do you really have a team of personalities that can engage an audience?  Or is it all 'phoned in?'

Do you really know what entertains the audience and engages them?  Or have you given up trying? 

All of these questions may seem obvious, but take a few hours and just listen to your stations.  For many, it may be time to find a way to authentically engage your audience again. 

We all can see a world of new engagement and entertainment on every level.  Radio is still reaching over 90% and has pretty healthy engagement, but the more we sit back and let our programmed automation take the lead we risk losing the connection that made radio so effective.  Just a few thoughts as 2018 gets rolling and see Spring ahead.   

3 Opportunities For Radio Revenue in 2018

While we still see lots of challenges for Radio there are 3 opportunities that have tons of potential to drive revenue and cement Radio's strong marketing tool position in every community.   Let's take a look:

DIGITAL - Yes, digital on-line web-based marketing has huge potential for radio.  The Borell studies of advertisers across the county show that the key to success is using both traditional media and targeted digital campaigns.

While it's great to use all the web tools to laser target prospects on the web, you also need the brand building, event creation, and huge reach of traditional media. 

We also have skilled sales teams that already call on the key marketers in our markets.  Give them the knowledge of digital and the tools to add both sides of this package to what they can offer and Radio gets closer to being at the center of more marketing plans and dollars.   Build whole campaigns that build the brand and micro-target customers.

LOCAL - No media has the potential to be more Local than Radio.  Newspapers are struggling to stay afloat in most markets.  TV has become a streaming world with so many options. The internet news world is more often nationally focused, more so on politics it seems like now. In the end who wakes up in your market and talks about your weather, traffic, events, and issues?  Radio clearly has the one on one potential here.

EVENTS - Staging events and also participating in big established events can be a key revenue source.  Yes, it takes lots of planning to build a Job Fair or a Bacon Fest, the opportunity to stage these events and bring in nice crowds from the market is a key skill that Radio has a big edge in.  The key is building them to make sure you build revenue. 

The New Marketing Tools on the block may be great at finding niche targets, but it takes more than chasing targets with banner ads or pre-roll videos.  Most of the time the customer needs to know you and be able to get face to face with you to become a real customer.  Radio has proven over and over it can deliver. 

2018 is a year to look forward to. 

Check out This Streaming Site

A very unique site that lets you wander the planet and drop in on key stations all over the world.  Check it out Radio Garden  

Look Out Alexa and Friends are on the march!!

You can see the quick rise of these devices over the last 8-10 months with the early adaptors.  According to Edison Research's Smart Audio Report with NPR in late June 2017 around 7% of the households, own one of these 'smart speakers'  The leaders are Amazon's Alexa and Google's Home and they are poised to be THE big deal this Christmas.  While it will not be as life changing as the smart phone, released 10 years ago, it could have a big impact on Radio listening.

Right now these devices can control smart devices like the thermostat, light switches, and more as they develop them.   They can also act like Siri on the phone and look things up on the web. But, the big deal for Radio and audio is - they can stream your audio with great sound into the house again.  In fact, the Edison/NPR study reports that 90% of the smart speaker owners bought it to listen to music.

For years and years, we've seen radio become a very portable and mobile medium with the car becoming the spot where most listening happens.  Now we have the chance to get back into the home with a new device.  No wonder the sessions at the NAB Radio show in Austin on these devices were well attended.  The only problem is we are competing with all the streaming channels (Spotify and Pandora) and every station in the world who is streaming through the big apps like I Heart and Tune In Radio.  They already have a 'Skills' app section in the Alexa world for 'partners' to link up to Alexa so you can order up an Uber or a Domino's Pizza.  Could there be a link for your station to have a skills app?

So how does your station take advantage of a new radio in the house?   First, we need to educate the audience to command Alexa to tune us in and that will be tricky.  Just saying 'Alexa I want to listen to Z100' might not bring the answer we expected.  How many Z100s are there in the world of streaming?  The key will lie in our call letters - but how many of us use our call letters all the time?   The answer is very few of us.  Does the audience even know our call letters?

We are going to have to start with a detailed campaign in our imaging and promos to explain to the audience how to order up our stations in Alexa land.  First, buy an Alexa and see what works for your station in your market.  Then craft your imaging campaign and make sure it's running enough to stand out.  In the end, our call letters may be very important to more than just the legal ID we bury in a sea of spots in the :50 stop set.

 Yes, only 7-10% of the audience has one now but, this will grow fast over the next year.  If you wait to jump in the pool it could be pretty crowded.